The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report: for the full year of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 20.37 billion yuan, an increase of 26.4%; realized net profit of 3.36 billion yuan, an increase of 33.1% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 3.51 billion yuan, an increase of 20.4% year on year. In 23Q4, the company achieved operating income of 4.32 billion yuan, up 41.3% year on year; net profit to mother 180 million yuan, up 6.3% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 410 million yuan, down 1.6% year on year. In 24Q1, the company achieved operating income of 5.20 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5% year on year; net profit to mother was 90 million yuan, up 15.2% year on year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 8.4 billion yuan, an increase of 12.0% year on year.
The cataract growth rate is impressive, and the core hospital's operating performance is steady: by business, the company achieved refractive revenue of 7.43 billion yuan (+17.3%) in 23 years, accounting for 36.5% (year-on-year -2.8pcts); cataract revenue of 3.33 billion yuan (YoY +55.2%), accounting for 16.3% (+3.0pcts). The company introduced a series of functional intraocular lenses to promote the development of refractive cataract surgery; optometry service revenue was 4.96 billion yuan (+31.3% yoy), accounting for 24.4% (+0.9pcts); The immediate revenue was 1.79 billion yuan (+33.7% YoY), accounting for 8.8% (YoY +0.5pcts); the back segment revenue was 1.39 billion yuan (+31.3% YoY), accounting for 6.8% (YoY +0.3 pcts); and revenue from other projects was 1.42 billion yuan (+0.2% YoY), accounting for 7.0% (-1.8pcts). Among core hospitals, Wuhan Aier achieved revenue of 637 million yuan (YoY +25.64%) and net profit of 188 million yuan (YoY +34.56%); Changsha Aier achieved revenue of 552 million yuan (YoY +18.20%) and net profit of 139 million yuan (YoY +2.21%); Chengdu Aier achieved revenue of 445 million yuan (YoY +16.49%) and net profit of 121 million yuan (YoY +) 26.44%). In a competitive market environment, core hospitals continue to play a pivotal role.
The store layout continues to expand, and the medical service network continues to expand: in 2023, the company achieved 15.1064 million outpatient visits (+34.26% year over year); 1.1837 million surgeries (+35.95% year over year).
By the end of 2023, the company operated 256 domestic hospitals, 183 outpatient departments, and 131 overseas ophthalmology centers and clinics, and successfully opened the Aier Ophthalmology International Clinical Training Center, which has reached the world's leading level.
Profit forecast adjustment: Based on the company's existing financial data for 2023 and 2024Q1, competition in the ophthalmology service industry intensified, and there was a price war in the refractive market. We lowered the company's profit forecast for the next few years. The revenue side growth rate was adjusted to 15-20% in 2024, and the profit side growth rate was adjusted to 20-25%.
Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company's net profit to be 40.94, 50.63, and 6.346 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026, corresponding increases of 21.9%, 23.7%, and 25.3%. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 29X, 23X, and 19X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Industry competition increases risks, health insurance fee control exceeds expectations, and the risk of medical safety accident disputes.