The Zhitong Finance App learned that so far this year, the prices of gold, silver, and platinum have continued to rise strongly. Strategists from world-renowned investment institutions generally say that the prices of these precious metals may continue to rise strongly in the next few months, and then continue to reach new phased highs. Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank) strategists said in a recent research report that the price of gold may soon test the price of 2,400 US dollars, near the all-time high that was set in April, silver may rise to a phased historical high of 30 US dollars per ounce, while platinum has the potential to rise to near the historical high of 1,130 US dollars per ounce.

Precious metals prices can be described as having risen sharply this Wednesday. Earlier, the lower than expected CPI inflation data released by the US increased the possibility that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in September and cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points this year. Affected by this news, gold closed at its highest level in more than three weeks on Wednesday, silver hit its highest level in more than three years, and platinum climbed to its highest price in a year.

On Thursday, after the release of data on the number of initial jobless claims and the unexpected decline in the US housing rate, which was weakening one after another, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations continued to heat up. Precious metals prices continued to rebound during this period, but eventually adjusted slightly due to a slight decline.

Strong gains in precious metals are likely to continue

According to the latest data, spot gold prices finally ended with a slight decline after falling slightly on Thursday. The price of gold fell slightly to around 2,382 US dollars per ounce. After closing at the highest level since April 19 on the previous trading day, April 19 was the point in time when gold reached a record high of over 2,400 US dollars. Gold prices have been very strong in recent weeks, and are likely to repeatedly reach new highs for the rest of the year.

Wall Street seems to be relatively optimistic about the future gold market. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target price for gold to 2,700 US dollars per ounce from the previous year's 2,300 US dollars per ounce. In April, the price of gold once hit a record high of more than 2,400 US dollars per ounce, mainly because the market feared that Iran's attack on Israel might lead to an escalation of the war in the Middle East. Another major Wall Street bank, Bank of America, is expecting a gold price of 3,000 US dollars, while UBS Group (UBS) called out a super high forecast of 4,000 US dollars, which is almost double the current price.

Meanwhile, spot silver prices were also adjusted on Thursday, and eventually fell slightly by 0.5% to around $29.5 an ounce. This precious metal is sometimes called the “poor relative” of gold. When gold prices are high, investors often pour capital into silver, hoping that the much lower price of silver will continue to rise to the popularity of gold. On Wednesday, silver briefly hit $29.73, the highest intraday level since February 2021.

Well-known investment agency InvestingHaven predicts that the price of silver may reach $34.70 per ounce in 2024, and may reach $48 between mid-2024 and mid-2025. J.P. Morgan predicts that the price of silver may follow the strong trend of gold prices. The average price for the fourth quarter is expected to be around $30 per ounce.

Generally speaking, the pricing dynamics of silver are largely influenced by two main factors, namely investment demand and industrial demand. In addition to buying large amounts of gold, investors also often buy silver to cope with changes in interest rate expectations. Silver may become a potential “low cost safe haven” for investors seeking stable assets during the period when expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts heat up. Compared to the price of gold, cheap silver's attractive price point also makes it very popular in the market because more investors can afford it.

Furthermore, silver's unique chemical composition makes it an outstanding conductor of electricity and heat, surpassing other metals in terms of efficiency and efficacy. Electric cars use almost twice as much silver as internal combustion engine cars. Coupled with the installation of solar panels, and the field of 5G/smartphone technology, all rely on silver supply. More than 50% of the demand for silver comes from industrial uses. As a malleable metal, it is as suitable for jewelry as gold, but it is also a good conductor of electricity and is widely used to manufacture electronic components. Notably, the transition to clean energy is expected to drive demand for silver over the next few years, particularly in applications such as electric vehicle connectors and solar panel modules.

On Thursday, the price of platinum for July delivery rose 0.7% to $1,077 an ounce, continuing the increase at the close of Wednesday. Platinum closed up nearly 3% on Wednesday, the highest price in a year. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) said the global platinum gap is expected to be larger this year than previously anticipated due to reduced mine supply in South Africa and Russia. Furthermore, the widespread application of platinum in automotive catalytic converters and green hydrogen technology will continue to drive demand growth.

Analysts from Livemarkets raised their expectations for platinum prices at the end of 2024 from $1,250 to $1,300, reflecting optimism about the performance of the platinum market. According to Long Forecast forecast data, the price of platinum is likely to fluctuate between $1,100 and $1,300 per ounce in 2024, depending on market supply and demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors.

Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank) strategists said in a recent research report that the price of gold may soon test the key phase high level of $2,400, silver may rise to around the high level of $30, while platinum has the potential to rise to $1,130. The Danish bank said on Wednesday that the “Year of Metals” investment theme has continued to gain momentum in recent weeks, citing its investment preferences for gold, silver and copper.

Additionally, analysts from ROTH Capital Partners expect gold and silver prices to rise even stronger in the coming months.

“It now appears that the price of gold is indeed expected to rise and break through the record high set in April.” JC O'Hara, chief technology strategist at ROTH Capital Partners, said in a research report released on Sunday. “We can set an upward technical target of $2,600.”

Regarding the price of silver, O'Hara wrote, “If the price of silver can break through $30, then there is almost no resistance until the $35-$37 area.”

Some institutions are still relatively cautious about the future market of precious metals

In times of uncertainty in the financial environment, gold is generally regarded as a “safe haven” asset and has been on the rise since the end of 2022, despite high interest rates and the relatively strong dollar.

Like silver, the price of gold is often inversely related to interest rates. A higher interest rate environment or interest rate expectations will usually hurt market demand for gold and silver, because precious metals do not pay interest, and their appeal is greatly reduced compared to interest-bearing investments such as bonds.

However, not everyone expects precious metal prices to continue to strengthen in the coming months.

Ewa Manthey, a commodity strategist at ING, said in a research report published earlier this month, “As the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a cautious policy attitude and geopolitical factors are included in the current pricing range, the price of gold may weaken this quarter.” Manthey said that the agency expects the average price of gold to be around 2,250 US dollars per ounce in the second quarter, while the average price in 2024 is expected to be 2,218 US dollars per ounce. The agency previously indicated that the price of gold may peak at an average of 2,300 US dollars in the last three months of this year.

Editor/Somer