周末读物 | 巴菲特“神秘”持仓是安达保险,失去芒格的每日期刊开始减减减……

Weekend Readings | Buffett's “mysterious” holdings are in Chubb Insurance, losing Munger's Daily Journal and starting to cut back...

IN咖 ·  May 18 14:30

Source: IN Coffee
Author: Hao Ran

On May 16, Beijing time, according to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) website, all key overseas institutions have published data on US stock positions up to the end of the first quarter of 2024.

This time, we are analyzing 10 “investment giants” including Berkshire Hathaway, The Daily Journal, Gao Lin HLR, Jing Lin, Qiaoshui, Baillie Gifford, ARK, Fisher & Shea, and Pershing Plaza.

The key points are as follows:

1. Berkshire's mysterious holdings are Chubb Insurance, which reduced its Apple holdings by 116 million shares in the first quarter and changed positions with the two energy companies slightly;

2. The first quarter of the Mainichi Journal reduced its holdings of 4 individual stocks by varying degrees. Among them, Alibaba's holdings were particularly reduced;

3. Gao Lin HLR increased its holdings in Pinduoduo in the first quarter. The stock price quadrupled in the past 2 years, and opened a position in AMD. China Securities still dominates with 70% market capitalization; Jing Lin reduced its holdings at a high level in Pinduoduo's stock price, increasing semiconductors and pharmaceuticals;

4. Qiaoshui Dario increased its holdings of technology stocks and reduced its holdings of consumer stocks in the first quarter. The “Big Seven” of US stocks was one of the highlights of its holdings;

5. The reduction of Baillie Gifford's holdings in the first quarter was a general trend, while the increase in Fisher's holdings in the first quarter was a general trend. Kenneth Fisher also recently said, “Let's enjoy this round of the bull market, even though the stock market fluctuates from time to time”;

6. When Baillie Gifford drastically reduced her Tesla holdings for 17 consecutive quarters, “Cathie Wood” bucked the trend and increased her positions. It was clear at a glance who had “true love” for Musk.

Here are the key analyses:

01 Chubb Chubb Insurance's new 9th largest position in Berkshire, reducing its holdings in Apple, Chevron, Hewlett-Packard, etc.; the daily publication reduced its holdings on 4 of its stocks

According to the 13F US stock position documents submitted by Berkshire Hathaway, the mysterious position that Buffett has always kept secret is —$Chubb Insurance (CB.US) $.

The number of shares held in the first quarter was 25.92 million shares, and the market value of positions exceeded 6.7 billion US dollars (approximately RMB 48.5 billion).

Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024
Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024

According to the data, Berkshire began opening a position with Chubb Insurance in the third quarter of 2023 and kept the position confidential after obtaining permission from the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

It is worth mentioning that Buffett occasionally requests such permission to prevent investors from causing market fluctuations until he has completed his purchase.

In 2016, CEO Evan Greenberg created Chubb Insurance through the merger of Ace Ltd. and Chubb Corp.

Chubb Insurance is one of the largest property and accident insurance companies in the US. It is also a large insurance company covering a range of risks such as cyber attacks and shipping, and operates in 54 countries around the world.

Buffett has always been fond of the insurance business. At this year's shareholders' meeting, he said, “The insurance business is Berkshire's most important business.”

Also, in the first quarter, Berkshire will$apple (AAPL.US) $The holdings were reduced by 116 million shares, and the share of holdings fell to 41%, but this was already known in advance.

The current market value of Apple stock holdings is 135.4 billion US dollars.

Despite the reduction in holdings, Buffett still greatly appreciated the tech giant, saying that unless there are any dramatic changes, the stock will still be Berkshire's biggest investment.

Furthermore, Berkshire reduced its holdings slightly in the first quarter$Chevron (CVX.US) $At the same time, it increased its holdings slightly$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) $.

Buffett said, “We don't know how much oil prices will be next year, and I don't think anyone knows, but I think this is a great opportunity. For Berkshire, increasing its holdings of Occidental Petroleum is the right decision. It is a valuable investment, and we will continue to invest.”

Berkshire has also drastically reduced its holdings$Paramount Global-B (PARA.US) $, the reduction in holdings was -88.11%. Although he lost quite a bit of money on the stock, Buffett admits, “Investing in Paramount allows me to think further now.”

(Note: Buffett admitted at the May 4 shareholders' meeting that this bad investment was entirely his responsibility, and that he has now sold all of Paramount. (So presumably Berkshire liquidated the stock in April.)

HP is the only stock that was cleared in the first quarter of this year.

Also, losing Munger's daily magazine, in the first quarter, I held 4 stocks --$Wells Fargo Bank (WFC.US) $,$Bank of America (BAC.US) $,$Alibaba (BABA.US) $,$United Bank of America (USB.US) $, holdings were reduced. The holdings were reduced by -11.23%, -13.04%, -35.00%, and -14.64%, respectively.

Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024
Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024

Among them, the reduction in Alibaba's holdings was particularly significant.

02 Gao Lin HLR increased its holdings in Pinduoduo in the first quarter to the largest position, and AMD joined the top ten; Jing Lin reduced its holdings in Pinduoduo and bought quite a few semiconductors and pharmaceuticals

According to the latest US stock position data released by Gao Lin's HLR Advisors, the total market value of positions held in the first quarter was US$4.604 billion, down from the fourth quarter of last year.

What are the top ten heavy-held stocks$Pinduoduo (PDD.US) $,$BeiGene (BGNE.US) $,$seashell (BEKE.US) $,$Legendary Creature (LEGN.US) $,$ Microsoft (MSFT.US) $,$AMD.US (AMD.US) $,$Amazon (AMZN.US) $,$SEIFTCH (CRM.US) $,$Danaher (DHR.US) $,$Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO.US) $The Chinese stock market accounts for more than 70% of the market value, and it still dominates.

Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024
Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024

What is quite interesting is that among the top ten, Pinduoduo was the one with the largest increase in HHLR holdings, at 16.62%, making it the largest heaviest position; in addition, AMD first appeared in HHLR's holdings, ranking 6th.

Pinduoduo trend chart as of May 16, 2024
Pinduoduo trend chart as of May 16, 2024

Pinduoduo has performed well in the past two years. Since the low in early 2022, the stock price has quadrupled, and HHLR increased its holdings during Pinduoduo's phased pullback in the first quarter. It can be seen that it is optimistic about Pinduoduo's future development.

In January-February of this year, AMD's stock price continued to rise sharply in 2023, and reached a record high of 227.3 US dollars/share in early March, but then began to recover, falling by more than -30% in the past 2 months.

However, it is unknown when the HHLR was inserted; keep a close eye on AMD position changes in the second quarter.

In addition, HHLR also increased its Amazon holdings and made new purchases$TSMC (TSM.US) $,$Nvidia (NVDA.US) $, AMD,$Meta Platforms (META.US) $,$ASML.US $Other targets related to technology companies.

Overall, China Securities and Technology Stocks are still HHLR's two main investment lines.

According to data on US stock holdings for the first quarter released by Jinglin Assets, the total market value of Jinglin's latest holdings was US$3,226 billion, up about 15% from US$2.8 billion at the end of last year.

The top ten most recent stocks are Meta, Pinduoduo, Microsoft,$NetEase (NTES.US) $,$DoorDash (DASH.US) $, TSMC, Nvidia,$NEW ORIENTAL (EDU.US) $,$ Futu Holdings Ltd. (FUTU.US)$,$Manbang (YMM.US) $.

Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024
Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024

Compared with HHLR, Jing Lin apparently increased and decreased the top ten major stocks more strongly, such as Pinduoduo,$ Microsoft (MSFT.US) $The holdings were reduced by more than 20%, TSMC's holdings increased by 1741.77%, and Nvidia's holdings increased by 116.81%.

Jinglin made new purchases in the first quarter$Uber (UBER.US) $, AMD, ASML,$Tencent Music (TME.US) $Many stocks, including JD, and Alibaba, have cleared 4 stocks at the same time, respectively$ Google-C (GOOG.US) $,$Zaiding Pharmaceutical (ZLAB.US) $,$IQ.US (IQ.US) $und$Mingchuang Premium (MNSO.US) $.

Among them, Google,$Mingchuang Premium (09896.HK) $It is likely that they will take profit and clear their positions, and iQiyi's stock price has been fluctuating downward since Jinglin's first heavy position in 2023, and I don't think they have much patience.

Judging from the first quarter's activities, Jinglin is very optimistic about semiconductors. Apart from drastically increasing its holdings of TSMC and Nvidia, AMD, AMSL, and semiconductor ETFs are all favored. Currently, semiconductors account for more than 15% of total holdings.

Also, even though it's out of stock$Zaiding Pharmaceutical (09688.HK) $, but Jing Lin bought it as a new entrant$MSD (MRK.US) $,$Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) $,$AbbVie Inc. (ABBV.US) $,$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) $Well-known pharmaceutical companies should generally be optimistic about the pharmaceutical sector.

Jinglin has reduced its holdings quite a bit$Zhiwen Group (MOMO.US) $With Tesla, the holdings were reduced by more than 80%, but these two didn't hold much in the first place, so the impact was not significant.

03 Qiaoshui made a big deal to increase its holdings in technology stocks such as Google, Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, and opened a position on Amazon

Looking at Dario's Qiaoshui Group, US stock holdings in the first quarter were 17.9 billion US dollars, the highest level in nearly a year.

The top ten heavy warehouses are$S&P 500 ETF-iShares (IVV.US) $,$Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF-iShares (IEMG.US) $, Google,$Procter & Gamble (PG.US) $, Nvidia, Meta, Johnson & Johnson,$Walmart (WMT.US) $,$Cost.US (COST.US) $and$ Coca-Cola (KO.US) $.

Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024
Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024

The most obvious change is that Jinglin has drastically increased its holdings in Google, Nvidia, and Meta, while drastically reducing its holdings in Walmart, Market Opener, and Coca Cola, which is enough to show Dario's views on technology stocks and consumer stocks.

At the same time, Jinglin opened a position on Amazon, which ranked 22nd. It was also the largest number of newly opened stocks in the first quarter, followed by AMD, so overall, apart from Tesla, the other 6 members of the “Big Seven” US stocks were favored by Jinglin.

In fact, since the first quarter of last year, Qiaoshui has been increasing its holdings in US technology stocks, and the general direction remained unchanged in the first quarter of this year.

In its submission to the SEC, Qiaoshui also mentioned that with the development of computational technology, data analysis and related fields, portfolio management, trading, portfolio risk management, and other investment processes increasingly tend to use tools such as generative artificial intelligence, big language models, machine learning, and artificial neural networks.

In addition, Qiaoshui also opened a position to buy about 680,000 shares of leading medical technology companies$Medtronic (MDT.US) $, as well as the 870,000 iShares Korea ETF, and more than 80,000 shares$S&P Global (SPGI.US) $.

04 Baillie Gifford mainly reduced her holdings in the first quarter, including popular technology stocks such as Nvidia, Tesla, Pinduoduo, and NIO; “Cathie Wood Mu” bucked the trend and increased positions on Tesla and Roku

British asset management giant Baillie Gifford (Baillie Gifford), which disclosed position information earlier, as a famous “technology stock catcher,” reduced its holdings of Nvidia, Tesla, Pinduoduo, and$NIO (NIO.SG) $Popular technology stocks and the like have shown a different attitude from Qiaoshui.

The latest top ten individual stocks are Nvidia,$MercadoLibre (MELI.US) $, Amazon,$Spotify Technology (SPOT.US) $,$Moderna (MRNA.US) $,$Shopify (SHOP.US) $, Pinduoduo,$The Trade Desk (TTD.US) $, Tesla,$Coupang (CPNG.US) $.

Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024
Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024

Currently, Nvidia is still Baillie Gifford's biggest position and has always been one of the heavy stocks.

Despite Nvidia's sharp rise in stock prices driven by the AI wave, Baillie Gifford still chose to reduce its holdings by 25.2% in the first quarter of this year, and cashed out about US$2,428 billion.

Worse than Nvidia is probably Tesla. It has been its biggest stock holdings many times, but since 2020, it has been losing its holdings for 17 consecutive quarters.

Meanwhile, Baillie Gifford added positions to Tesla's “eternal rival” Rivian and increased her holdings by more than 20 million shares in the first quarter, which also showed her optimism about Rivian.

Of course, Baillie Gifford is still optimistic about the “Sea of Stars” and has voted for quite a bit of Musk's SpaceX.

However, it was common for Park Gee to reduce its holdings of individual stocks in the first quarter: out of the top ten major stocks, it reduced its holdings by 9, and only increased its holdings$Coupang (CPNG.US) $; Of the top 25 largest stocks, positions were reduced by 22, and only the holdings of Coupang, Meta, and increased their holdings$Nu Holdings (NU.US) $.

Coupang is a Korean e-commerce giant. It is one of the most popular shopping websites for young Koreans. However, the announced profit situation for the first quarter fell short of market expectations, mainly due to the acquisition of online luxury goods company Farfetch Holdings in January this year.

NU Holdings is Brazil's largest bank and the world's largest digital bank.

Another ARK “Cathie Wood” who is good at investing in technology stocks bucked the trend in the first quarter of this year and increased her positions with Tesla and$Roku Inc (ROKU.US) $Over the past six months, the decline has been quite severe.

Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024
Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024

As a staunch holder of Tesla, Tesla recently had a series of negative public opinion, and news of price cuts and layoffs continues to be heard. In the Chinese market, a large number of up-and-coming car companies have also challenged Tesla.

However, Tesla's stock price suddenly surged more than 12% on April 24, reversing the decline, mainly because Tesla showed a ride-hailing program to be integrated into Tesla products and announced that it would release new models early. The robot taxi network it is developing is also progressing well.

Musk also stressed that Tesla is an AI robot company, not an automobile company, thus reversing the pessimistic expectations of the previous market.

At least from now on, the relationship and story between “Cathie Wood” and Tesla still continues.

05 Pershing Plaza held the same position in Google's parent company and cleared Lowe's Group; the increase in Fischer's holdings in the first quarter was a general trend, including tech giants and oil giants

Let's also take a look at Pershing Plaza, founded and managed by Bill Ackman (Bill Ackman). The investment style is still quite traditional, holding 7 shares in the first quarter.

Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, holdings have been reduced this time$Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.US) $, increased its holdings of Tim Hortons and Burger King$Restaurant Brands International (QSR.US) $.

Also, Ackman is out of stock$Lowe's (LOW.US) $Previously, it was the most heavily held stock. It reduced its holdings for 4 consecutive quarters last year, and finally completely cleared in the first quarter of this year.

Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024
Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024

In the first quarter of last year, Ackman bought nearly 10.3 million shares of Google's parent company. The position consists of approximately 8.1 million shares of Alphabet's Class C shares and 2.2 million Class A shares.

After that, it increased its holdings for two consecutive quarters, and then remained unchanged in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year.

Ackman once said that the market did not give Google more applause. He believes that Google has great advantages in terms of training data, company financial resources, and talent attraction.

In the first quarter, the market value of Fisher's stock holdings reached US$214.110 billion, continuing to reach new highs.

However, unlike Perky, Fisher Price increased its holdings in the first quarter: out of the top ten heavy-held stocks, it increased its holdings by 9, and only reduced its holdings of TSMC; out of the top 25 stocks, it increased its holdings by 21, and only reduced its holdings of TSMC,$SEIFTCH (CRM.US) $, ASML, and$Adobe (ADBE.US) $.

The latest top ten major warehouses are Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Google,$Mid-Term Corporate Bond ETF - Vanguard (VCIT.US) $, AMD, TSMC,$Lilly (LL.US) $,$Home Depot (HD.US) $.

Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024
Source: Whalewisdom, as of March 31, 2024

In order of market capitalization, the top 5 stocks that Fisher bought the most in the first quarter$ExxonMobil (XOM.US) $, Chevron, Procter & Gamble,$US Treasury 7-10 Year ETF-iShares (IEF.US) $As well as Walmart, the top 5 best-selling stocks are ASML, CRM,$Fanlin Group (LRCX.US) $,$SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK.US) $and$Applied Materials (AMAT.US) $company.

Among them, ExxonMobil and Chevron are internationally renowned petroleum energy companies. This increase in positions is similar to Buffett's optimism about petroleum.

Fisher-Price increased its holdings of Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticals by a small amount in the first quarter, and is probably still quite optimistic about its diet pills and heart disease drugs.

In terms of industry share, companies in the information technology and finance sector account for half of Fischer's investments, followed by consumer, pharmaceutical, communications, and energy industries.

Kenneth Fisher, founder of Fisher-Price Investments, recently said that the recent sell-off in the stock market is not a reason for investors to flee the market; in fact, it is a sign that the bull market may rise further.

He pointed out that the reason the previous increase of about 10% of the S&P 500 index was erased in April was that investors accepted the March inflation report, which was hotter than expected, and postponed the Fed's interest rate cut schedule.

“Enjoy this bull market, even though the stock market fluctuates from time to time.” he added.


The translation is provided by third-party software.

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