海外：Q1 国际客户累计销产品近5000 吨，占比2 成。目前公司韩国一期2 万吨已在稳定供货日韩、欧美客户，二期4 万吨今年投产；韩国基地24年上半年核心客户会陆续完成认证及小批量量产，从24 年3 季度到25 年年初会迎来大规模量产。Q1 国际客户累计销产品近5000 吨，另公司公告日韩客户大单，预计2025 年-2027 年累计采购量将超过10 万吨。目前公司海外客户占比2 成，今年内持续提升，我们预计26 年提升至50%，海外客户低成本敏感与稳定性特点有助于提升公司盈利水平。Incident: The company's 2024 quarterly report achieved revenue of 3.7 billion yuan, -56%/-10%; net profit to mother of -0.37 million yuan, -112%/+6% YoY; deducted non-net profit of -38 million yuan, -113%/-13% YoY.
Ternary cathode: The Q2 shipment growth rate is expected to be more than 20% month-on-month, which is expected to reverse losses. 24Q1 shipped 26,000 tons, with a global market share of over 11%, with a net loss of about 1,500 yuan per ton; in March, the company achieved sales volume exceeding 11,000 tons, with a global market share of 12.5%, and a domestic market share of 20%, to reverse the loss. We expect Q2 to ship about 32,000 tons. As the operating rate increases, losses in lithium manganese, precursors, and Korean factories narrow, and the company is expected to turn a loss into a profit.
Nearly 10,000 tons of 4,680 high-nickel were supplied in 2023, and currently tens of tons of solid cathodes are being shipped. In 23 years, 9 series and above products have been used on a large scale in cylindrical batteries, and nearly 10,000 tons have been shipped throughout the year; semi-solid battery cathodes have cooperated with Wei Blue and Ningde (APHC solid electrolytes, dry electrodes) to supply 1000 km ultra-long battery life models such as NIO ET7 through Azure 360Wh/kg semi-solid state batteries. Currently, monthly shipments have reached the level of tens of tons; we expect the year-on-year growth rate of lithium manganese in '24.
Overseas: Q1 international customers have sold nearly 5,000 tons of products, accounting for 20%. At present, the company's first phase of Korea has been stably supplying 20,000 tons to customers in Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the US. The second phase of 40,000 tons will be put into operation this year; core customers at the Korean base will complete certification and small-batch mass production one after another in the first half of '24, and will usher in large-scale mass production from the 3rd quarter of '24 to the beginning of '25. Q1 International customers have sold nearly 5,000 tons of products. In addition, the company announced large orders from Japanese and Korean customers. The cumulative purchase volume from 2025 to 2027 is expected to exceed 100,000 tons. Currently, the company's overseas customers account for 20%, and this year will continue to increase. We expect it to increase to 50% in '26. The low cost sensitivity and stability characteristics of overseas customers will help improve the company's profit level.
Investment advice: The share of overseas customers is increasing, and the superposition of new products is progressing faster, increasing the operating rate, and there is room for cost reduction. We expect the company to ship 13, 16, and 200,000 tons of ternary cathode materials in 2024-2026, corresponding to a net profit of 4.5/8/1.3 billion yuan, corresponding to PE 33/18/11 times PE, maintaining an “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: Competition in the industry intensifies; downstream NEV sales fall short of expectations; upstream raw material prices have risen sharply; costs have risen above expectations.
