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松井股份(688157):2023年归母净利润实现逐季度增长 持续加大研发打开远期成长空间

Matsui Co., Ltd. (688157): Net profit due to mother achieved quarterly growth in 2023 and continued to increase R&D to open up room for long-term growth

華創證券 ·  May 16

Matters:

The company released its 2023 annual report, and achieved revenue of 590 million yuan for the full year of 2023, +18.17% year on year; net profit to mother was 81 million yuan, -1.45% year over year. Among them, the fourth quarter achieved revenue of 175 million yuan, +57.14% y/month-on-month +3.17%; realized net profit to mother of 0.28 million yuan, +49.8% YoY/+2.29% month-on-month.

Net profit to mother increased quarterly in 2023.

The company released its 2024 quarterly report. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 135 million yuan, +43.53% /month-on-month -22.57%; realized net profit to mother of 12 million yuan, +298.31% /month-on-month -56.05%.

Commentary:

The consumer electronics business recovered strongly in 2023, and the automotive business maintained high growth. 3C sector: In 2023, the 3C sector achieved revenue of 479 million yuan, +12.26% year-on-year. Among them, mobile phones and related accessories, laptop and related accessories, and wearable devices businesses increased 20%/5.22%/5.53% year-on-year respectively. In 2023, the company built industry benchmark projects such as Mate60, a major domestic customer, and Vision Pro, a major consumer electronics customer in North America. The Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 consumer electronics sector achieved revenue of 0.7/1.26/1.40/143 million yuan. Looking ahead to 2024, 1) the company uses the printing process for H customer Mate 60 series products, and the stand-alone value and gross margin are expected to increase. The process is expected to be extended to other series of products, and the gross margin in the 3C sector is expected to be further optimized; 2) Apple Vision Pro products will be released in early 2024, which is expected to fully show the product's flexibility in 24; 3) the company's Vietnam factory will be put into operation in the 2nd quarter of '23, and is expected to contribute to the increase in '24. Automobile sector: In 2023, the automotive sector achieved revenue of 99 million yuan, +47.23% year over year, of which Q4 achieved revenue of 32.34 million yuan, +94.15% YoY/+21.47% YoY. The company has now made the leap from interior paint to higher value exterior paint, and the passenger car sector is expected to grow at an accelerated pace in the future. In the special equipment sector, the company achieved revenue of 2,522,200 yuan in 2008, +556.31% over the same period last year. The lithium battery insulation coating project gradually contributed revenue.

The consumer electronics business recovered significantly in 24Q1, and the automotive business continued to grow. 1) 3C sector: In 24Q1, the 3C sector achieved revenue of 112 million, +49.37% year-on-year. Among them, mobile phones and related accessories, laptop and related accessories, wearable devices, and smart home businesses increased by 50%/9%/98%/7.2% year-on-year respectively. 2) Automobile sector: In 24Q1, the automotive sector achieved revenue of 121 million yuan, +28.44% over the same period last year.

Sales and R&D go hand in hand, and long-term growth can be expected. The overall 24Q1 fee rate level has increased to a certain extent. Although it has dragged down performance in the short term, it has laid the foundation for the company's development in the long run. In terms of sales expenses, the 24Q1 sales expense ratio reached 14.27%, year-on-year -0.94 PCT/month-on-month +8.62 PCT. We believe that the increase in sales expenses is mainly due to the company's developing new customers for ink and adhesive products. In addition, automotive exterior paint products will also consume part of the cost. In terms of R&D expenses, the company is a company that invests heavily in R&D. The 24Q1 R&D expenditure rate reached 16.07%, year-on-year -2.26PCT/month-on-month +0.97PCT. This portion of investment is mainly due to the consumption of new products the company continues to launch. The company's new products contributed about 27.5% of revenue for the full year of '23, and it is expected that continued high investment in R&D will protect the company's growth.

Investment advice: Based on the company's performance in 2023, considering that the company will need to invest more time and money in the early stages of business development, we will adjust our previous expectations. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 8.18/10.61/13.85 (9.36/13.76) billion yuan, respectively, +38.6%/+29.8%/+30.5% year-on-year; net profit to mother is 1.29/1.50/2.07 (1.44/2.05) billion yuan (24-25 years ago was 1.44/2.05) billion yuan, respectively, +59.0%/+16.2%/+37.8% year-on-year respectively. The P/E corresponding to the current stock price is 29/25/18x, respectively. Considering that the company's performance is expected to usher in a high growth rate in the next 3 years, and at the same time, it has a scarce import substitution attribute. According to the PEG=1 valuation system, the average annual growth rate of the company's net profit to mother for the next 3 years is 37%. Therefore, the company was given 37x P/E in 2024, with a target share price of 42.55 yuan/share. Maintain a “strong” rating.

Risk warning: 3C demand for mobile phones, notebooks, etc. has not recovered, new projects in the automotive sector have fallen short of expectations, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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