Hot news

• “New Federal Reserve News Agency”: The Federal Reserve may still not cut interest rates until September

The US CPI slowed slightly in April. The year-on-year increase in core CPI was the smallest increase in three years since April 2021. The data was generally in line with expectations. The “New Federal Reserve News Agency” pointed out that millions of Americans are still facing huge price pressure. Following the April report, two CPI reports are needed to boost confidence in the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve will probably still not cut interest rates until September. The significance of the April CPI data is that it preserves the possibility of cutting interest rates later this year and calms some people's concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to further open the door to interest rate hikes.

• Kashkari expects high interest rates to remain high for some time, saying the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring housing inflation

On Wednesday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari said he expects the Fed's policymakers to keep interest rates high “for a longer period” until they have confidence in the potential path of inflation. He said, “Housing is a major driver of inflation. Considering the sharp rise in mortgage interest rates, the real estate market is much more flexible than I expected.

• Will the AI Wave Trigger Inflation? J.P. Morgan: Optimistic AI customers are pouring into the commodity market

J.P. Morgan said that investors are betting on the initial impact of artificial intelligence this year, and commodities are pouring in one after another. The infrastructure required for AI technology will drive up demand for energy and equipment, while infrastructure will depend on investment in electricity, CPUs, power grids, etc., and the gradual development of artificial intelligence will cause inflation. Despite the Federal Reserve's ongoing efforts to curb inflation, such bets are fueling price increases, and the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index has risen nearly 8% this year.

• Luntong has made great strides to reach a new two-year high. Analysts warn that it has been overbought in the short term

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 2.7% during the European trading session on Wednesday, hitting a two-year high of $10,390 per ton. Meanwhile, the price of copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange once surged more than 4%, reaching a record high. John Caruso, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that although he is still “firmly optimistic” about the copper price trend, he also “completely” admits that copper is now in the overbought region.

Resumption of US stock trading

• CPI revived expectations of interest rate cuts. The three major indices reached new highs, and ultra-microcomputers exploded with Nvidia

US stocks opened higher, and the three major indices collectively reached record highs at the close of the day. By the close,$Dow Jones Index (.DJI.US) $rose 0.88%,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US) $It rose 1.17%, breaking the 5,300 mark for the first time. Both reached record highs at the end of March.$NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US) $It rose 1.40% and closed at a new high for the second day in a row.

Most of the big tech stocks rose.$Nvidia (NVDA.US) $An increase of more than 3%,$Meta Platforms (META.US) $An increase of more than 2%,$ Microsoft (MSFT.US) $An increase of nearly 2%,$apple (AAPL.US) $,$ Google-C (GOOG.US) $An increase of more than 1%,$Amazon (AMZN.US) $fell 0.58%,$ Tesla (TSLA.US) $Decreased by more than 2%.

The computer hardware sector rose strongly.$Ultra Microcomputer (SMCI.US) $It rose nearly 16%, leading the rise in S&P constituent stocks.$Dell Technologies (DELL.US) $An increase of over 11%.

Popular Chinese securities had mixed ups and downs.$Tencent Music (TME.US) $An increase of nearly 5%,$Pinduoduo (PDD.US) $,$Alibaba (BABA.US) $An increase of nearly 2%,$Baidu (BIDU.US) $It rose more than 1%, and JD rose nearly 1%.$NEW ORIENTAL (EDU.US) $,$Ideal Auto (LI.US) $It fell nearly 2%,$Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV.US) $It fell more than 3%,$NIO (NIO.US) $It fell nearly 8%.

• Also, many Nvidia sang before their investment results! KeyBanc: Performance and guidance will exceed expectations

KeyBanc Capital Markets will$Nvidia (NVDA.US) $The target share price is set at $1,200. Nvidia will announce quarterly results on May 22. The investment bank analyst said that the upward trend in current results and performance guidelines may be due to several factors. These include a better supply of H100 GPUs, China's strong demand for its H20 GPUs, and the initial supply of H200 GPUs. Overnight, Nvidia surged more than 3%.

• Berkshire reduced its Apple holdings in the first quarter, and it is still the number one position. The mysterious position has finally come to light

After three consecutive quarters of secrecy, Berkshire Hathaway finally unveiled its mysterious stock in a regulatory document, announcing that it had invested heavily in an insurance company$Chubb Insurance (CB.US) $. Furthermore, data shows that Berkshire reduced its Apple holdings in the first quarter, but Apple is still the company's largest stock. Berkshire weighs more on increasing its holdings in financial stocks than other sectors. After the news was announced, Chubb Insurance's stock rose more than 7% during after-hours trading.

• “Big short” Michael Burry takes a heavy gold position in the first quarter

On May 15, a recent regulatory document showed that Michael Burry drastically increased his physical gold trust holdings in the first quarter of this year, which became the number one position target in Scion Asset Management's holdings he manages. Specifically, as head of Scion Asset Management, Burry purchased more than 440,000 copies in the first quarter$Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS.US) $, with a total value of over $10 million.$Sprott (SII.US) $A physical gold trust is a closed-end fund characterized by directly holding physical gold rather than gold derivatives or stocks.

• Retail group stocks ended in a frenzy for two days. The whole market plummeted, and AMC took the opportunity to issue new shares

On Wednesday, group stocks of US retail investors plummeted across the intraday market, and trading was suspended several times, although the decline narrowed markedly at the close.$Game Station (GME.US) $It still plummeted by 18.9%,$AMC CinemaLine (AMC.US) $It closed down 20%,$Gauss Electronics (KOSS.US) $It closed down 19.2%,$Blackberry (BB.US) $It closed down 6.9%. According to news on Wednesday the same day, AMC disclosed in a document that it will issue 23.3 million shares in exchange for notes due in 2026, with a principal amount of US$164 million.

• Damo is optimistic that the AI server will become a suction tool! Dell surged 11%

$Dell Technologies (DELL.US) $He did not release any positive news on Wednesday, but Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring released a bullish Dell report on the same day. It is expected that the market's uninterrupted demand for AI servers will increase Dell's sales, saying Dell is its preferred individual stock. Woodring raised Dell's price target from $128 to $152 per share, an increase of nearly 18.8%.

Driven by this news, Dell closed up 11.2%, hitting a record high in mid-session and closing, with a cumulative increase of nearly 95% this year.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• The quarterly adjustment of the MSCI Index excludes 15 Hong Kong stocks. The effective date is scheduled for early June

MSCI announced the May 2024 semi-annual index review results for all of its indices, including the MSCI China Index. CICC indicated that MSCI China included 10 constituent stocks in this quarter. Among them, 2 Hong Kong stocks were included,$Hisense Home Appliances (00921.HK) $und$Minmetals Resources (01208.HK) $.

While 10 constituent stocks were included, MSCI China excluded 56 constituent stocks in this quarter. Of these, 15 Hong Kong stocks were excluded, respectively$Zaiding Pharmaceutical (09688.HK) $,$Jiantao Group (00148.HK) $,$Country Garden Service (06098.HK) $,$Zhongan Online (06060.HK) $,$Kangzhe Pharmaceutical (00867.HK) $,$Yuexiu Real Estate (00123.HK) $,$Oriental Selection (01797.HK) $,$China Cinda (01359.HK) $,$Trinity International (00631.HK) $,$Air China (00753.HK) $,$Zhonghai Property (02669.HK) $,$Dongfeng Group Shares (00489.HK) $,$Fosun Pharmaceuticals (02196.HK) $,$COSCO SHIPPING PORT (01199.HK) $,$Country Garden (02007.HK) $.

Today's attention

Keywords: number of initial jobless claims in the US, Japan's GDP, FOMC voting committee speech

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, the number of initial jobless claims in the US, the monthly rate of the import price index, the monthly rate of industrial output, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index will be announced.

In terms of economic events, the 2026 FOMC voting committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Huck delivered a speech.

In terms of major financial reports,$Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) $,$Jingdong Group (09618.HK) $,$IQ.US (IQ.US) $,$Jingdong Logistics (02618.HK) $Results will be announced.

Futubull Chen read:

I never gamble when probability isn't on my side.
—Charlie Munger

Editor/Somer