Key points of investment

The global leader in 3D visual perception, and the implementation of new scene applications is expected to drive performance growth. Obi Zhongguang's main products include 3D vision sensors, consumer application equipment and industrial application equipment. It has achieved a comprehensive layout of six major 3D visual perception technologies. The main application areas of the products are biometrics, AIOT, consumer electronics, industry, etc. By product, the company's main business revenue mainly comes from selling 3D vision sensors. In 23 years, it accounted for 61.6% of total revenue; by application area, biometrics contributed more than 50% of the company's revenue. The company has implemented multiple employee incentive plans and confirmed large share payments. The R&D expenses rate has continued to be above 50% in the past five years, so net profit has not been corrected. In the future, commercial implementation of new scenarios such as health insurance verification and AIOT is expected to drive the company's revenue back to growth, thereby diluting the impact of share payments and R&D expenses, and driving the company to gradually reverse losses.

The 3D visual sensing market space is broad, and the company places equal emphasis on technology and industrial chain resources. The 3D vision sensing market will reach $15 billion in 25 years, and the market share of structured light, ToF, and Lidar technologies will further increase in the future as major fields such as consumer electronics and autonomous vehicle driving grow.

Rapid iterative updates in the field of AI+ robotics in the context of major improvements in global computing power algorithms are expected to generate an explosive incremental market on the robot side. The company has built a “full-stack technology research and development capability+full-field technology route layout” 3D visual perception technology system, developed structured light, iTOF, binocular vision sensors, dToF single-line lidar and industrial 3D measurement equipment, and actively deployed cutting-edge technologies such as area array dToF and area array Lidar. Currently, the company's products are mainly structured light technology products. Other technologies are in the early stages of product launch or in the development stage. 3D vision sensors based on iTOF technology were launched at the end of 2020, and dToF and Lidar technologies were laid out in 2019. Currently, the average development cycle for the new technology is about 2-3 years.

3D visual perception empowers many industries, and the boom in the field opens up market space. The field of biometrics is accompanied by the growth of face-brushing payments, smart door locks, and medical terminal devices; the field of service robots in AIoT is the main growth point, and the future evolution towards humanoid robots is obvious; in recent years, with the accumulation of high-precision 3D measurement technology by domestic companies, domestic equipment has begun to replace imported equipment and continue to expand new applications in the industrial field; the consumer electronics sector shows a pattern of coexistence between self-development and outsourcing. 3D sensing technology is mostly used in high-end devices. The future volume of MR and other devices will drive market growth. Currently, the company has implemented many commercial applications of solutions in biometrics, AIoT, industrial 3D measurement, consumer electronics, etc. The company has accumulated millions of commercialization experience in the biometrics field. AIoT and industrial businesses run through the company's various development strategies. Consumer electronics is the medium- to long-term direction. The automotive sector is currently in the R&D stage, and commercial applications have yet to be implemented.

Profit prediction and investment rating: The company is a global leader in 3D visual perception, and the implementation of new scenarios such as medical insurance verification, 3D scanning, and robotics is expected to drive the company's continued growth. Based on this, we expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 5.4/7.6/1.03 billion yuan, and the current market capitalization corresponding to PS is 19.8/14.0/10.4 times, respectively, giving it a “buy” rating for the first time.

Risk warning: macroeconomic environmental risk; risk of downstream application market development falling short of expectations; risk of iterative innovation in 3D visual perception technology; risk of continuous loss of company performance; risk caused by high customer concentration and related transactions.