KeyBanc analyst John Vinh maintained an Overweight rating on Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) with a price target of $1,200.
Despite anticipating next-generation Blackwell GPUs in the second half, Vinh noted limited signs of a demand pause and expects Nvidia to report fiscal first-quarter results and second-quarter guidance meaningfully above expectations.
The analyst expects an upside driven by improving the supply of H100 GPUs, as lead times have largely normalized, China's demand for H20 GPUs, and the initial ramp of H200 GPUs, which should mitigate a pause in H100 demand. He expects China to contribute $9 billion to $12 billion in calendar year 2024.
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Vinh expects GB200 and Blackwell to drive over $200 billion in DC revenue in 2025. B100 (a drop-in replacement for H100) and B200 will likely begin ramping from the third quarter and account for most GPU volume in the fourth quarter, with ASPs about 40%+ higher than Hopper.
Coupled with H200 ramps, Vinh expects a smooth transition between Hopper and Blackwell, with both product families ramping into the calendar year 2025. Furthermore, the analyst noted GB200 (GPU+CPU solution) becoming the mainstream Blackwell configuration due to its meaningfully lower TCO, driven by the MGX server rack standard adoption, with backlogs across all major hyperscalers and a demand of 60K – 70K, with an ASP of $1.5million – $2 million, and higher ASP for 72x GPUs.
Vinh estimates this alone would represent up to $140 billion+ revenue opportunity. In conjunction with HGX AI servers and networking, he estimates total data center revenue could contribute over $200 billion in 2025.
Vinh's first-quarter revenue and EPS estimates are $25.6 billion and $5.81, compared to the consensus of $24.6 billion and $5.57. His second-quarter revenue and EPS estimates are $27.8 billion and $6.20, compared to the consensus of $26.6 billion and $5.92.
Vinh projected first-quarter revenue and EPS of $25.57 billion and $5.81.
Price Action: NVDA shares traded higher by 3.5% at $946.00 at last check Wednesday.
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