With an increase in housing stock, a decline in sales, and a decline in operating rates, where will Canadian real estate go in the context of high interest rates?

FX168 · May 16 01:47

FX168财经报社(北美)讯加拿大房地产市场的房源数量激增，挂牌库存量创下有记录以来的最大月度增长，因为购房需求在高利率的情况下减弱。#2024宏观展望#

根据加拿大房地产协会（The Canadian Real Estate Association，CREA）周三发布的数据，4月份市场上的房产总数比3月份增加了6.5%，是有史以来第二快的月度增长。数据显示，这将待售房屋的总库存推至自疫情前的最高水平。可是，尽管市场上迎来了大量新房源，但4月份的房屋交易量较上个月有所下降。

随着购房需求下降，4月份的房屋销售量比上个月下降了1.7%，即但是新上市待售房产的数量增加了2.8%，拉开了春季市场的序幕。据CREA周三（5月15日）公布的数据显示，上个月售出的房屋的平均价格为703,446加元，较2023年4月下降了1.8%。

尽管与去年同期相比，房屋销售量增长了10.1%，截至4月底，全国房地产市场的库存量也达到了新冠疫情爆发前的最高水平，库存量为4.2个月，而3月底为3.9个月。长期平均值约为五个月的库存量。

但CREA将这一增长归因于较早的复活节长周末。今年的耶稣受难日和复活节分别落在3月29日和3月31日，而去年是4月7日和4月9日。

温暖天气的回归通常预示着加拿大各地房地产市场最繁忙的季节即将到来，但由于借款成本仍处于20年来的最高水平，房价仅略低于去年春季市场，许多买家选择观望。

许多买家和卖家正在应对加拿大银行降息可能比预期晚发生的前景。这一变化与对降息预期的改变相吻合。今年年初，交易员预计加拿大银行将在2024年底将其政策利率降至约3.75%。现在，他们打赌它只会降至大约4.5%左右。

CREA董事会主席詹姆斯·马贝（James Mabey）在一份声明中表示：“抵押贷款利率仍然很高，许多人仍然很难进入市场。” “对于那些可以的人来说，这是一段时间以来的第一个春季市场，他们可以四处看看，花些时间，并行使一些讨价还价的权力。”

CREA首席经济学家肖恩·卡特卡特（Shaun Cathcart）表示，与去年同期相比，今年春季的市场条件截然不同。

他在一份新闻稿中说：“2023年4月，市场上迎来了一大波买家，而新上市房源却降至20年来的最低水平，而今年春季则相反，可供选择的房产数量更多，但需求方面的热情减少了。”

尽管新房源增加导致月销量放缓，但整体市场上的房产数量却增加了6.5%，这是有记录以来第二大的月度涨幅。

Royal LePage Team Realty在渥太华的地产团队的经纪人贾森·拉尔夫（Jason Ralph）表示，尽管他所在市场的本地库存水平不如全国数据高，但相对平衡的市场条件为买家提供了更多的议价权。

他在接受采访时说：“平衡市场往往是买家可以享受房屋检查、融资等条件的地方。”他补充说，现在是购买的好时机，即使一些人对加拿大银行何时开始降低其主要利率持谨慎态度。

拉尔夫说：“有些买家在观望，等待着利率下降的积极消息，但我看到更多的买家开始行动。”“与去年相比，我们年初的表现相当强劲……我认为人们对我们将要面对的利率变动变得更加舒适。”

此外，加拿大抵押与住房公司也于周三（5月15 ）发布了其4月份的最新住房开工数据，显示年度开工速度较3月份下降了1%。

目前看来，开工率总体下降是因为城市中心地区的年度开工速度在4月份基本持平。国家住房机构（The national housing agency）表示，加拿大4月份的季节性调整后的年度住房开工率为240,229套，低于3月份的242,267套，他们表示，去年困难的借款条件导致了这一下降趋势。

根据该报告，4月份城市中心的年度开工速度基本持平，为220,123套。

4月份，多户型城市住宅的开工速度下降了1%，至178,462套，而独立式城市住宅的开工速度上涨了2%，至41,661套。农村住宅的年度开工速度估计为20,106套。

CMHC首席经济学家鲍勃·杜根（Bob Dugan）表示，住房开工的下行趋势主要是由多户型住宅的开工减少所推动，特别是在安大略省。

他在新闻发布会上说：“多户型住宅在多伦多、温哥华和蒙特利尔近几个月的波动并不令人意外，因为我们继续看到去年困难的借款条件在多户型住宅开工数据中反映出来。”“我们预计这些大城市将继续承受下行压力。”

该机构表示，由于多户型和独立式城市住宅的开工减少，这三个主要城市的住房开工量下降。与2023年4月相比，多伦多的开工量下降了38%，温哥华下降了30%，蒙特利尔下降了3%。

CMHC表示，4月份季节性调整后的年度速度的六个月移动平均值为238,585套，比3月份的243,907套下降了2.2%。

尽管总体下降，TD银行经济学家瑞希·桑迪（Rishi Sondhi）表示，开工量“仍然保持健康水平”，政府措施和租金的快速上涨支持了专门建造租赁单位的建设。

他在一份声明中说：“此外，几年前在借款成本低时进行的预售额的稳固增长正在推动公寓建设。”

桑迪表示，TD银行预计住房开工将在今年余下时间继续下降，“反映了多伦多等主要市场最近预售活动的疲软、建筑成本上升和高利率”。

FX168 Financial News (North America) News The number of listings in the Canadian real estate market surged, and listed inventory recorded the biggest monthly increase on record, as demand for home purchases weakened due to high interest rates. #2024宏观展望 #

According to data released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) on Wednesday, the total number of properties on the market in April increased 6.5% compared to March, the second-fastest monthly growth in history. According to the data, this pushed the total inventory of homes for sale to the highest level since before the pandemic. However, despite the large number of new listings on the market, the number of housing transactions in April decreased compared to the previous month.

As demand for home buyers declined, house sales in April fell 1.7% from the previous month, but the number of newly listed properties for sale increased by 2.8%, kicking off the spring market. According to data released by CREA on Wednesday (May 15), the average price of homes sold last month was $703,446, down 1.8% from April 2023.

Although housing sales increased 10.1% compared to the same period last year, by the end of April, inventory in the national real estate market had also reached the highest level before the COVID-19 outbreak. Inventory volume was 4.2 months, compared to 3.9 months at the end of March. The long-term average is approximately five months of inventory.

But CREA attributed this increase to an earlier Easter long weekend. This year's Good Friday and Easter fell on March 29 and March 31, respectively, compared to April 7 and April 9 last year.

The return of warm weather usually indicates that the busiest season for real estate markets across Canada is approaching, but since borrowing costs are still at their highest level in 20 years, housing prices are only slightly lower than last spring's market, and many buyers are choosing to wait and see.

Many buyers and sellers are dealing with the prospect that the Bank of Canada's interest rate cut may occur later than expected. This change coincides with changes in expectations for interest rate cuts. At the beginning of this year, traders expected the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate to around 3.75% by the end of 2024. Now, they're betting it'll only drop to around 4.5%.

James Mabey (James Mabey), chairman of the CREA board of directors, said in a statement: “Mortgage interest rates are still very high, and it is still difficult for many people to enter the market.” “For those who can, this is the first spring market in a while and they can take a look around, take some time, and exercise some bargaining power.”

CREA chief economist Shaun Cathcart (Shaun Cathcart) said that compared to the same period last year, market conditions this spring were very different.

In a press release, he said, “In April 2023, the market welcomed a large wave of buyers, while newly listed listings fell to their lowest level in 20 years. This spring, on the contrary, there were more properties to choose from, but the enthusiasm for demand decreased.”

Despite a slowdown in monthly sales due to the increase in new listings, the number of properties in the overall market increased by 6.5%, the second-largest monthly increase on record.

Jason Ralph (Jason Ralph), the agent of Royal LePage Team Realty's real estate team in Ottawa, said that although local inventory levels in his market are not as high as national data, relatively balanced market conditions provide buyers with more bargaining power.

In an interview, he said, “A balanced market is often a place where buyers can enjoy conditions such as housing inspections and financing.” He added that now is a good time to buy, even if some people are wary about when the Bank of Canada will start lowering its key interest rate.

Ralph said, “Some buyers are on the sidelines, awaiting positive news of falling interest rates, but I'm seeing more buyers take action.” “Compared to last year, our performance at the beginning of the year was quite strong... I think people are more comfortable with the interest rate changes we are about to face.”

Additionally, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation also released its latest housing commencement data for April on Wednesday (May 15), showing that the annual rate of commencement of construction has decreased by 1% compared to March.

Currently, it seems that the overall decline in the operating rate is due to the fact that the annual construction rate in urban centers was basically the same in April. The National Housing Agency (The National Housing Agency) said that Canada's seasonally adjusted annual housing operating rate in April was 240,229 units, down from 242,267 units in March. They said that difficult borrowing conditions last year led to this downward trend.

According to the report, the annual rate of commencement of construction in the city center was basically the same in April, at 220,123 units.

In April, the rate of commencement of multi-family urban housing dropped by 1% to 178,462 units, while the rate of construction of detached urban housing increased by 2% to 41,661 units. The annual rate of commencement of construction of rural housing units is estimated at 20,106 units.

CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan (Bob Dugan) said that the downward trend in housing starts is mainly driven by a decline in multi-family housing starts, particularly in Ontario.

“The fluctuations in multi-family homes in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal in recent months are not surprising, as we continue to see last year's difficult borrowing conditions reflected in multi-family housing commencement data,” he said at the press conference. “We expect these big cities to continue to experience downward pressure.”

The agency said housing starts in these three major cities have declined due to a decrease in the number of multi-family and single-family urban housing starts. Compared to April 2023, construction volume in Toronto dropped by 38%, Vancouver by 30%, and Montreal by 3%.

CMHC said the six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate in April was 238,585 sets, down 2.2% from 243,907 sets in March.

Despite the overall decline, TD Bank economist Rishi Sondhi (Rishi Sondhi) said that construction volumes “remain at a healthy level” and that government measures and rapid increases in rents have supported the construction of purpose-built rental units.

“Additionally, the steady increase in pre-sales that took place a few years ago when borrowing costs were low is driving apartment construction,” he said in a statement.

Sandy said that TD Bank expects housing starts to continue to decline for the rest of the year, “reflecting recent weakness in pre-sale activity in major markets such as Toronto, rising construction costs, and high interest rates.”

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房源增加、销售下降、开工率下滑，高利率背景下的加拿大房地产何去何从？

With an increase in housing stock, a decline in sales, and a decline in operating rates, where will Canadian real estate go in the context of high interest rates?

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