Incident Overview
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report.
The 23-year performance continued to grow rapidly, and after deducting the non-profit level, we achieved revenue of 2,508 billion yuan in 2023, +52% year over year, of which Q4 was 668 million yuan, +30% year over year. By business, CMP equipment and other businesses generated revenue of 22.78 billion yuan and 230 million yuan respectively in 2023, +59% and +6%, respectively. Net profit for 2023 and net profit without return to mother were 724 million yuan and 608 million yuan respectively, +44% and +60%, respectively. The net sales interest rate and net non-sales interest rate for 2023 were 28.86% and 24.25%, respectively, -1.52 and +1.21pct, respectively. The level of deducted nonprofit continued to rise, mainly benefiting from the decline in expense ratios due to scale effects. The gross sales margin and period expense ratio for 2023 were 46.02% and 21.83%, respectively, -1.70 and -2.80pct year-on-year, respectively.
The growth rate of Q1 performance slowed, and confirmation of full revenue from on-hand orders is expected to accelerate 2024Q1 to achieve revenue of 680 million yuan, +10% year-on-year. Net profit to mother and net profit after deducting non-return to mother were 2.02 billion yuan and 172 million yuan respectively, +4% and +3% year-on-year, and the growth rate has slowed slightly. The 2024Q1 net sales margin and net profit margin after deducting non-sales were 29.72% and 25.25%, respectively, a slight decrease of -1.74 and -1.87pct compared to -1.74 and -1.87pct. The 2024Q1 gross sales margin and period expense ratio were 47.92% and 22.02%, respectively, compared with +1.26 and +3.32pct. It can be seen that the increase in the period expense ratio was the main reason for the decline in net interest rates. The main reason was the marked increase in management and R&D expense ratios, +1.98 and +0.87pct compared to the same period. As of the end of 2024Q1, the company's inventory and contract liabilities were 2,732 billion yuan and 1,226 billion yuan, respectively, +13% and -8% month-on-month, and +19% and -8% compared to the same period. Ongoing orders are still sufficient. With continued delivery of equipment confirmed, revenue is expected to return to rapid growth in 24 years. In terms of new orders, we expect the 24Q1 order volume to remain at a high level, and the rapid growth trend is expected to continue throughout the year.
Continuously improve the product line based on CMP equipment, focus on advanced packaging and other factors driving demand for thinning equipment
1) Thinning equipment: The 12-inch ultra-precision wafer thinning machine Versatile-GP300 satisfies 3D IC ultra-precision grinding. It has obtained batch orders from leading companies in various fields, and has developed an all-in-one wafer thinning and coating machine to break through the problem of ultra-thin wafer processing.
2) Cutting equipment: A 12-inch wafer edge cutting device has been developed, and the 2024H1 has been sent to a storage faucet manufacturer for verification. 3) Cleaning equipment: It has been used in batches for the company's wafer recycling production. The first single-chip terminal cleaning machine was sent to a leading domestic silicon wafer company for verification, and the cleaning machine for cleaning the front, back and edge of FEOL/BEOL wafers has been assembled. 4) Film thickness measuring equipment: Thin thickness measuring equipment used in metal processes such as Cu, Al, W, Co, etc. has been shipped in small quantities, and some machines have passed inspection.
Investment advice
We expect the 2024-2026 revenue to be 35.00, 47.40, and 6.034 billion yuan, respectively, +40%, +35%, and +27%. The 2024-2026 net profit to mother will be 10.09, 13.33, and 1,699 billion yuan, respectively, +39%, +32%, and +27%. The 2024-2026 EPS will be 6.35, 8.39, and 10.69 yuan, respectively. The 2024/5/14 stock price of 181.40 yuan corresponds to PE 29, 22, and 17 times , covered for the first time, and gave a “gain” rating.
Risk warning
The semiconductor industry is declining, and the expansion of new products falls short of expectations, etc.