#黄金技术分析 #24K99讯 early trading in the European market on Wednesday (May 15). Spot gold maintained an intraday rebound trend. The price of gold is currently around 2,363 US dollars/ounce. FXStreet analyst Lallalit Srijandorn recently wrote an article on Wednesday analyzing gold price transactions.
Gold prices rose on Wednesday due to the weakening dollar, Srijandorn wrote. Furthermore, growing demand for gold and geopolitical tension are also driving up precious metals prices. Despite this, hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell (Jerome Powell)'s proposal to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, may drag down the price of gold in the short term.
Srijandorn said that the US CPI and retail sales data released on Wednesday may provide some clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.
At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April will be released. According to an authoritative media survey, the US CPI is expected to increase 0.4% month-on-month in April, compared to 0.4% in March; the US CPI for April is expected to increase 3.4% year over year, down from 3.5% in March.
The survey also showed that the US core CPI is expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month in April, down from 0.4% in March; the US core CPI for April is expected to increase 3.6% year over year, compared to 3.8% in March.
TD Securities said that despite another significant rise in energy prices, the overall CPI data is likely to increase 0.3% month-on-month, and the core inflation rate is expected to slow to 0.3% in April after a strong 0.4% increase for the third consecutive month in March.
On Wednesday at 20:30 Beijing time, the US will release retail sales data for April. Currently, the market generally expects retail sales in the US to increase by 0.4% month-on-month in April, compared to 0.7% increase in March.
US retail sales data is known as “horror data”. Because it usually has a big impact on the financial market, it is likely to have an impact on asset trends such as the US dollar and gold.
Srijandorn wrote that later on Wednesday, the US CPI for April will be announced, which may provide insight into when the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates for the first time. Additionally, retail sales for April will also be announced and provide insight into consumer spending trends. Higher-than-expected inflation data may lead to the Federal Reserve taking a more aggressive stance, which will boost the dollar and put some selling pressure on dollar-denominated gold.
Gold's latest technical analysis
Srijandorn said that gold prices have shown an upward trend so far on Wednesday. Judging from the four-hour gold trend chart, since the price of gold remains above the key 100-period exponential moving average (EMA), gold maintained its positive position. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the bullish zone of 60.70, which suggests that the path of least resistance for gold prices is upward.
On the upside, Srijandorn pointed out that if gold receives subsequent purchases and breaks through the May 10 high of 2,378 US dollars/ounce, this may clear the way for the price of gold to rebound to the next major resistance level near the psychological barrier of 2,400 US dollars/ounce.
Once the price of gold decisively conquers 2,400 US dollars/ounce, the price of gold will target an all-time high near 2,432 US dollars/ounce and advance towards the 2,500 US dollars/ounce integer mark.
On the downside, Srijandorn added that the key support level for gold prices will be in the $2325-2330 per ounce area, representing the lower limit of the downtrend channel, the 100-period EMA, and the May 13 low.
If it falls short of these regions, the price of gold will fall to 2,300 US dollars/ounce, followed by a low of 2,281 US dollars/ounce on May 2.
At 16:02 Beijing time, spot gold was reported at 2363.40 US dollars/ounce.