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腾讯控股(00700.HK):2024Q1利润大增 新游戏与视频号或继续驱动增长

Tencent Holdings (00700.HK): 2024Q1 profit surges, new game and video accounts may continue to drive growth

開源證券 ·  May 15

2024Q1's profit growth was impressive, with new game and video accounts continuing to drive growth, maintaining that the “Buy” rating company achieved operating income of 159.5 billion yuan (+6% YoY), net profit to mother of 41.9 billion yuan (+62% YoY), and non-IFRS net profit of 50.3 billion yuan (+54% YoY). 2024Q1's value-added services business revenue was 78.6 billion yuan (-0.9% YoY), with game revenue of 34.5 billion yuan (YoY -2%) in the Chinese market, 13.6 billion yuan (+3% YoY), and social networking revenue of 35.5 billion yuan (-2% YoY). Online advertising revenue of 26.5 billion yuan (+26% YoY) was mainly due to increased advertising expenses for video accounts, applets, public accounts, and search, driven by increased user engagement and AI-driven advertising technology platforms. Revenue from the fintech and corporate services business was $52.3 billion (+7% year over year), mainly due to the increase in financial services revenue, cloud service revenue, and technical service fees for video account merchants. We maintain our profit forecast for 2024-2026. We expect the company's net profit to be 1567/1873/205.1 billion yuan respectively, corresponding EPS of 16.6/19.9/21.8 yuan (due to a decrease in share capital), and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 21.3/17.8/16.2 times, respectively. We are optimistic that new games and video channels will drive the company's performance growth and maintain a “buy” rating.

High-quality revenue growth drives the company's profitability to continue to improve

2024Q1's gross margin was 52.6% (YoY +7.1pct, month-on-month +2.6pct), sales, management, and R&D expenses were 4.7% (year-on-year flat, -2.3 pct month-on-month), 5.7% (-0.6pct, -1.2pct month-on-month), 9.8% (-0.3 pct yoy, -0.8 pct month-on-month), and non-IFRS net margin was 31.5% (YoY +9.8pct, month-on-month +4.0pct). The company's expense ratio is well controlled, and high-quality revenue growth such as video account advertising, mini game platform service fees, and video account merchant technical service fees drives the increase in the company's gross profit margin and net interest rate. We believe that with the further development of commercialization of video accounts and the increase in the share of high-quality revenue, the company's profitability is expected to continue to increase.

“Dungeons and Warriors: Origins” was launched on May 21, and the blockbuster game “Dungeons and Warriors: Origins” (“DNF Mobile Game”) from a major video advertising and e-commerce monetization space company will launch on May 21. The performance is worth looking forward to. It will further enrich the game pipeline or drive continued growth in the game business. According to the company's announcement, the total number of video number 2024Q1 user time increased by more than 80% year-on-year, and the video channel live streaming ecosystem was strengthened by expanding product categories and encouraging more content creators to participate in live streaming delivery. As user traffic continues to grow, video e-commerce and advertising still have broad scope for monetization, or continue to drive the company's performance growth.

Risk warning: the launch time or performance of new games falls short of expectations, the commercialization process of video accounts falls short of expectations, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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