Source: Zhitong Finance

Although this week's stock market fluctuations seem to indicate a sharp rebound in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin's performance has not kept pace with the meme stock boom three years ago. Over the past two days,$GameStop (GME.US)$und$AMC Entertainment (AMC.US)$The stock prices of each soared more than 160%, while according to Coin Metrics data, the price of Bitcoin remained almost unchanged, falling only slightly by 0.1%. This is in stark contrast to the situation from January to April 2021. At that time, the stock prices of GameStop and AMC Cinemas soared 821% and 373%, respectively, while Bitcoin, although the increase was small, reached 96%.

In response, Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev (Antoni Trenchev) stated, “The current situation is different from 2021. At that time, the world was in a state of lockdown, and the market was flooded with liquidity.” He cautioned that the GameStop craze peaked in January 2021, while Bitcoin only hit a record high of $60,000 in April and November of the same year, indicating that Bitcoin and Meme stocks may be in different market cycles.

Trenchev believes that if we want to find clues from market dynamics in the past 24 hours, we can speculate that the performance of Game Station may be a leading indicator of the market trend after Bitcoin is halved.

Trenchev further analyzed, “Strong data from the US Producer Price Index (PPI) reminds us that the macroeconomic and inflationary environment is not conducive to Bitcoin's rise. After a strong start in early 2024, Bitcoin is likely to continue to fluctuate within a certain range.”

Notably, in addition to Bitcoin, there is also a broader cryptocurrency market including Meme coins. However, these meme coins did not show the same market linkage as Bitcoin. According to Coin Metrics data, Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have increased by about 3% in the past two days, respectively.

In the absence of a clear catalyst, Bitcoin is generally thought to be driven by macroeconomic factors, such as the launch of a US Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) or the halving of Bitcoin mining rewards every four years.

However, the April 19 halving event also failed to support the Bitcoin price. In this halving, Bitcoin's procedural monetary policy changed, that is, the circulation of new coins was halved, and supply was limited.

J.P. Morgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes that the impact of the halving incident may have been pre-digested by the market. The bank's analysts believe that the price of Bitcoin is already much higher than their adjusted volatility comparison with gold, which means that the price of Bitcoin will reach $45,000. A more bullish explanation is that previous Bitcoin halving events have all caused delays in the price increase cycle.

Additionally, Matteo Greco, a research analyst at Fineqia International, wrote in a recent research report: “The recent halving event has led to short-term price declines, a pattern that has occurred before. Usually after that, there is an upward trend of 9 to 12 months, which eventually reaches the peak of the market cycle.”

Noelle Acheson (Noelle Acheson), an economist and author of the “Crypto Is Now Macro” newsletter, added that the rise in Meme shares was more like a brief boost in market sentiment than a full market recovery. She believes that macroeconomic issues are still putting pressure on Bitcoin. Atchison predicts that if future inflation data is better than expected, it may boost market sentiment, but there is still a high level of uncertainty.

This year, the US approved the launch of the first Bitcoin ETFs, mainly driven by BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. These funds are expected to attract a new investor base, bring stable capital inflows, and reduce market volatility. The 2023 US Regional Bank crisis kicked off the current Bitcoin cycle, prompting many to re-recognize cryptocurrencies as an alternative to traditional financial systems and a hedge against uncertainty.

Atchison said, “Bitcoin is no longer viewed as just a speculative asset. Its value storage properties have become more deeply entrenched in the hearts of the people, the holder base is broader, and it has been accepted by institutions to a certain extent.”

Sylvia Jablonski (Sylvia Jablonski), CEO and chief investment officer of Defiance ETF, added that although Bitcoin was classified as a meme stock in 2021, the market is now beginning to show a more serious attitude towards Bitcoin.

She pointed out, “The group of investors holding Bitcoin has moved to more mature investors, and Bitcoin has become more mainstream in the form of ETFs. Whether retail or institutional investors, they tend to hold Bitcoin and Ethereum at the same time rather than just intraday trading.”

Bitcoin performed well in the first quarter of this year. At one point, the price was close to $73,000, but recently it has declined somewhat. Many investors see this as a healthy adjustment for the market. Given the lack of a clear catalyst, as well as macroeconomic headwinds, these investors warned that Bitcoin's price could remain calm over the next few months, or even experience a further decline.

Trenchev concluded, “The consolidation period for these markets is likely to last a long time and is very tedious. Bitcoin's market narrative has lost momentum... I don't think the revival of the meme stock boom will be a catalyst for Bitcoin's next move.”

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