The Zhitong Finance App learned that the Business News Agency published an article stating that the price adjustment window for this round of domestic refined oil products will open at 24:00 on May 15, and the retail price of refined oil products will soon be lowered. In 2024, the retail price of refined oil products has gone through five increases and two drops, and the crude oil market declined during the cycle, and the negative rate of change increased. The retail price adjustment for refined oil products will be lowered for the third time in 2024.
Entering the current pricing cycle, the international crude oil market trend declined. As of the 14th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was 78.02 US dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 82.38 US dollars/barrel.
Crude oil prices fell sharply during the May 1st period at the beginning of the current cycle. Crude oil rebounded little after the holiday season. Overall, the crude oil market trend declined during the cycle. On the one hand, the cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas have eased the geographical tension, favorable international oil price supply dissipated, and the risk premium for crude oil was calmed to a certain extent. On the other hand, the signals sent by the Federal Reserve to the market have caused investors to generally worry that the interest rate cut cycle may not arrive so soon. Coupled with concerns about the prospects for crude oil demand, crude oil prices are falling. As of the 15th, the rate of change in crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was -4.85%, corresponding to a reduction of 235 yuan/ton in gasoline prices and 225 yuan/ton in diesel prices, with discounted prices of 92 #汽油下调0 .18 yuan, 95 #汽油下调0 .19 yuan, and 0 #柴油下调0 .19 yuan. The retail price of this round of refined oil products is about to “drop a third”.
On the gasoline side: Recently, maintenance facilities in Shandong have been restarted, and the average operating rate has risen to about 60%. However, there are still devices with maintenance plans in mid-late May. In addition, refinery profits still affect refinery production enthusiasm, and the local refinery's operating load remains low. Recently, the gasoline demand situation is average. Middlemen are replenishing stocks as needed, procurement sentiment is not high, and the gasoline market is declining.
Diesel: On the one hand, the price trend of cost and crude oil has declined slightly, which has had a negative impact on the diesel market; on the other hand, domestic diesel fundamentals have not changed much, downstream demand is not followed up, the operating rate of outdoor projects has not changed much, logistics and transportation are normal, diesel demand has not improved significantly, and the overall diesel market has fluctuated and declined.
Looking at the future market: The instability of the current situation in the Middle East is still beneficial to oil prices. This will keep oil prices high, and there is still a lot of resistance to a sharp decline in the future. Furthermore, the peak driving season in North America will stimulate demand for gasoline. Combined with falling US crude oil inventories and refined oil inventories, it is unlikely that oil prices will continue to fall. Domestically, it is difficult to improve the operating rate of short-term refineries. The operating rate of residents has returned to normal, but there has been an increase in fuel use due to rising temperatures. Overall, the favorable support for gasoline is insufficient. There is no shortage of room for a slight decline in the gasoline market in the later stages; supply and demand in the diesel market have not changed much, but the wholesale price of diesel is low, refinery profits are limited, and there is no shortage of slight upward trends in the later stages.