① The White House announced that tariffs will be imposed on Chinese products such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries. Many people in the industry chain said that this has little actual impact on China's lithium batteries; ② The US does not account for much of China's NEV export market, and domestic power battery companies are already in Europe, the largest export market.
Financial Services Association, May 14 (Reporters Liu Yue and Zeng Chuchu) The United States announced that it will impose tariffs on electric vehicles and other Chinese goods. In response, many industry insiders said that the actual impact of the policy on China's lithium battery industry chain is small.
The White House announced on the 14th that it will impose tariffs on a range of Chinese goods, including steel and aluminum, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, key minerals, solar cells, port cranes, and medical supplies. The new measures will affect goods worth 18 billion US dollars. According to the White House website, tariffs on electric vehicles in China will increase from the current 25% to 100%.
(Source: CIFA Telegraph screenshot)
In response, many industry insiders said that the policy has little actual impact on China's lithium battery industry chain at present. Zhang Jinhui, a senior researcher at Xinyi Information, said in an interview with a reporter from the Financial Services Association that the policy was better than the market's previous expectations. “It is mainly (means) used in elections (by US politicians) and does not affect our corporate profits.” “In the field of lithium batteries, the US currently relies on China's lithium battery supply chain, and does not have the ability to decouple from China's supply chain (in the short term). Otherwise, natural graphite and energy storage batteries will not wait until 2026 (start) to add tariffs.”
A leading anode materials company also told the Financial Federation reporter that the US NEV market (at this stage) is still inseparable from the supply chain of Chinese companies. Based on factors such as infrastructure speed, power supply, and skilled worker support in the US, it is estimated that it will be difficult to develop effective competitiveness in the US anode material production capacity within 3-5 years.
In fact, the US policy on Chinese lithium battery products is also constantly changing. For example, in early May, the news that “the US is easing tax credit restrictions on electric vehicles using Chinese graphite as batteries” attracted capital market attention. At the time, industry insiders thought it was beneficial to the industry but had limited impact because the US market did not account for a large share.
In fact, although China's NEV exports continue to rise, the US market does not account for a large share. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile production and sales reached a record high in 2023. Among them, 1.2 million new energy vehicles were exported, an increase of 78% over the previous year. According to Guoyuan Securities quoting data from the China Automobile Dealers Association, Europe and Asia, the second-largest market for China's NEV exports, together accounted for 77% in 2023, while the North American market, where the US is located, accounts for only 13%.
(Source: Guoyuan Securities)
In terms of overseas layout, domestic power battery manufacturers are leveraging the European market, and the first batch of production capacity of Ningde Era (300750.SZ) and Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074.SZ) has already been put into operation. Dongxing Securities's March research report predicts that domestic manufacturers' production capacity in Europe will begin to be intensively released in 2025, and the European layout will soon enter the harvest period.
Specifically, the Ningde Era added Hungary's 100GWh production capacity plan. Construction of the first phase began in October 2023, and construction is expected to be completed in about 2 years; Guoxuan Hi-Tech's Göttingen PACK production line in Germany has recently been officially put into operation, and the fourth phase of the master plan is expected to be put into operation in 2025. In addition, the company is also planning to jointly build 40 GWh production capacity with iNobat, and is seeking to invest in nearly 100 GWh production capacity in Morocco; Yilithium (300014.SZ) announced on June 8, 2023 the construction period for large cylindrical batteries in Hungary. The production capacity is about 28 GWh; in addition, China Airlines, Sunwoda (300207.SZ), and Funeng Technology (688576.SH) have all announced plans to add production capacity in Europe.
(Source: Dongxing Securities)
This month, leading power battery manufacturers are also continuing to expand their European footprint. Ningde Times signed a cooperation agreement with France's Dafei Shipping Group. The two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation in the fields of electric ships, commercial vehicles, warehousing and logistics, renewable energy, etc.; the head of the European Automobile Sales Division of BYD (002594.SZ) said that BYD is preparing to “invest heavily in the EU”, which could reach several billion euros, with the goal of becoming the largest electric vehicle seller in the European market by 2030.