Fair Isaac's (NYSE:FICO) five-year earnings growth trails the 36% YoY shareholder returns

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We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. While not every stock performs well, when investors win, they can win big. To wit, the Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) share price has soared 359% over five years. This just goes to show the value creation that some businesses can achieve. It's also up 13% in about a month. We note that Fair Isaac reported its financial results recently; luckily, you can catch up on the latest revenue and profit numbers in our company report.

On the back of a solid 7-day performance, let's check what role the company's fundamentals have played in driving long term shareholder returns.

See our latest analysis for Fair Isaac

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Fair Isaac achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 33% per year. So the EPS growth rate is rather close to the annualized share price gain of 36% per year. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
earnings-per-share-growth

We know that Fair Isaac has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Fair Isaac has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 76% in the last twelve months. That's better than the annualised return of 36% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Fair Isaac you should know about.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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