Bank of Suzhou (002966): Credit expansion momentum is sufficient to stabilize asset quality

核心要点：

信贷扩张动能足，异地机构贡献提升

2023 年与2024Q1，苏州银行总资产同比增长14.7%/16.8%，贷款同比增长17.1%/19.8%，存款同比增长15.0%/13.0%，业务规模保持较快增速，贷款占总资产中比重进一步提升，异地分支行机构贷款占比提高0.4%至37.8%。

2023 年，公司贷款同比增长22.4%，公司贷款占比提升约3%，绿色贷款同比增长68.7%。一季度，对公贷款较年初增长13.9%，保持强劲增长势头，个人贷款较年初增长1.2%。

息差仍然承压，成本节约效应或加强

2023 年，苏州银行净息差为1.68%，同比下降19 BP，生息资产收益率同比下降22 BP，主要受贷款收益率下降拖累，特别是个人贷款收益率降幅较大，而存款成本下降不明显，存有较大刚性。一季度，苏州银行净息差为1.52%，息差环比降幅为16 BP，预计主要是资产收益率仍趋下行。预计存款成本节约效应加强，将缓解2024 年息差压力。

营业收入增速提升，非息收入贡献扩大

一季度，苏州银行营业收入同比增长2.1%，增速较上年提高1.2%，主要是投资收益增长带动非息收入增速提高，归母净利润同比增长12.3%，利润保持两位数增长速度，主要是资产质量稳定以及拨备充足提供了利润反哺空间。2023 年与2024Q1，利息净收入同比变化幅度为+1.7%/-0.8%,非利息净收入同比变化幅度为-1.1%/+8.3%，非息收入贡献趋于扩大。

资产质量保持稳定，分红率稳中有升

一季度末，苏州银行不良贷款率为0.84%，较上年末持平，不良贷款率持续保持优异水平；关注贷款率为0.77%，较上年下降0.04%；拨备覆盖率为491.66%，较上年末有所下降，但仍然保持在上市行前列。

一季度末，苏州银行核心资本充足率为9.39%，较上年末略有上升。2023年度每股拟派息0.39 元，分红率预计为31.08%，较上年提高1%，股息支付率维持在30%以上。2024 年，苏州银行拟进行中期分红，满足投资者股息回报需求。

投资建议

苏州银行坚持差异化发展战略，新三年战略进一步升级，业务规模有望保持较快增长。在地域资源与客户资源优势下，苏州银行资产质量相对稳定，加上拨备计提充足，信用风险具有充分缓释空间，有望维持相对较高利润增长水平和股息回报。预计2024~2026 年归母净利润同比增速为12.4%/11.7%/9.0%，对应EPS 为1.47 /1.64 /1.79 元，现价对应PB 为0.54/0.50/0.46 倍。维持苏州银行“买入”评级。

风险提示

信贷需求增长不及预期；行业信用风险暴露增加；市场竞争加剧。

Key points:

Credit expansion has sufficient momentum, and the contribution of offsite institutions has increased

In 2023 and 2024Q1, Bank of Suzhou's total assets increased 14.7%/16.8% year on year, loans increased 17.1%/19.8% year on year, and deposits increased 15.0%/13.0% year on year. The business scale maintained a relatively rapid growth rate. The share of loans in total assets increased further, and the share of loans from offsite branch institutions increased 0.4% to 37.8% year on year.

In 2023, corporate loans increased 22.4% year on year, the share of corporate loans increased by about 3%, and green loans increased 68.7% year on year. In the first quarter, loans to public loans increased by 13.9% compared to the beginning of the year, maintaining a strong growth trend. Personal loans increased by 1.2% compared to the beginning of the year.

Interest spreads are still under pressure, and the cost saving effect may be strengthened

In 2023, the Bank of Suzhou's net interest spread was 1.68%, down 19 BP year on year, and yield on interest-bearing assets fell 22 BP year on year. It was mainly dragged down by the decline in loan yield. In particular, the decline in personal loan yield was large, while the decline in deposit costs was not significant, and there was a high degree of rigidity. In the first quarter, the Bank of Suzhou's net interest spread was 1.52%, and the month-on-month decrease in interest spreads was 16 BP. It is expected that the return on assets will continue to decline, mainly. It is expected that deposit cost savings will increase and ease the pressure on interest spreads in 2024.

Revenue growth rate increased, non-interest revenue contribution expanded

In the first quarter, the Bank of Suzhou's revenue increased 2.1% year on year, and the growth rate was 1.2% higher than the previous year. Mainly, the growth rate of non-interest income was increased by the growth rate of non-interest income. Net profit to mother increased by 12.3% year on year, and profit maintained a double-digit growth rate. Mainly, stable asset quality and sufficient provision provided room for profit back-up. In 2023 and 2024Q1, the year-on-year change in net interest income was +1.7%/-0.8%, and the year-on-year change in net non-interest income was -1.1%/+8.3%, and the contribution of non-interest income tends to expand.

Asset quality remains stable, and dividend rates are rising steadily

At the end of the first quarter, Bank of Suzhou's non-performing loan ratio was 0.84%, the same as at the end of the previous year, and the non-performing loan ratio continued to be excellent; the target loan ratio was 0.77%, down 0.04% from the previous year; the provision coverage rate was 491.66%, down from the end of the previous year, but it remained at the top of the listing market.

At the end of the first quarter, Bank of Suzhou's core capital adequacy ratio was 9.39%, up slightly from the end of the previous year. The proposed dividend of $0.39 per share for 2023 is expected to be 31.08%, an increase of 1% over the previous year, and the dividend payment rate remains above 30%. In 2024, Bank of Suzhou plans to pay an interim dividend to meet investors' demand for dividend returns.

Investment advice

Bank of Suzhou adheres to a differentiated development strategy. The new three-year strategy has been further upgraded, and the business scale is expected to maintain a relatively rapid growth rate. With the advantage of geographical resources and customer resources, the Bank of Suzhou has relatively stable asset quality. Coupled with sufficient reserves, there is plenty of room to mitigate credit risk, and it is expected to maintain a relatively high level of profit growth and dividend returns. The net profit growth rate for 2024-2026 is expected to be 12.4%/11.7%/9.0%, the corresponding EPS is 1.47/1.64/ 1.79 yuan, and the PB corresponding to the current price is 0.54/0.50/0.46 times. Maintain Bank of Suzhou's “buy” rating.

Risk warning

Demand for credit has fallen short of expectations; industry credit risk exposure has increased; market competition has intensified.

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苏州银行(002966)：信贷扩张动能足 资产质量稳定

Bank of Suzhou (002966): Credit expansion momentum is sufficient to stabilize asset quality

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Statement

苏州银行(002966)：信贷扩张动能足资产质量稳定