Core view: *Unless otherwise specified, the currency used in the report is RMB.
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report: 2023 revenue of $41.4 billion (-5.81% YoY) and net profit to mother of RMB2,386 billion (-36.04% YoY). 2024Q1's revenue was $10.157 billion (-6.56% YoY) and net profit attributable to mother was $610 million (-38% YoY). Mainly due to the sharp decline in revenue from COVID-related products, amortization of Gland Pharma's merger and acquisition of Cenexi, and Cenexi's operating losses. Performance is under pressure in the short term.
Core anti-tumor products are growing rapidly, and innovative research and development continues. According to the company's 2023 annual report, excluding COVID-related products, the pharmaceutical business revenue was +13.50% year-on-year. Among them, sales of core anti-tumor and immunomodulatory products amounted to 7.638 billion yuan (+38% year over year), mainly due to the rapid growth of products such as Hans Hyang, Han Quyou, and Su Kexin. The pharmaceutical business invested 5.172 billion yuan in R&D (+1.47% YoY) to accelerate the global development of research pipelines. Hansform was newly approved as ES-SCLC and ESCC in Indonesia; Yikaida received new second-line indications approved domestically; Han Quyou went on the market in the US, making it the first domestically produced biosimilar to be approved in the US. Handayuan's marketing application for 4 additional indications has been accepted by the CDE.
Device diagnosis is under pressure in the short term, and the digital transformation of medical services is accelerating. According to the company's 2023 annual report, the 2023 medical device and medical diagnosis business revenue was 4.39 billion yuan (-37% YoY), mainly due to a significant decline in sales revenue related to the epidemic. The company adjusted its focus on non-anti-epidemic varieties and enriched the product pipeline in the three major businesses of medical beauty, respiratory health, and medical equipment. The 2023 revenue for healthcare services was 6.672 billion yuan (+9.74% YoY), mainly due to greater focus on online business, optimization of expenses, and cost reduction benefits of centralized procurement of pharmaceutical devices.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 1.24 yuan/share, 1.65 yuan/share, and 1.98 yuan/share, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, A shares were given a PE valuation of 25 times in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value of about 30.89 yuan/share; considering the A-H share premium factor, the reasonable value of the corresponding H share was HK$17.34 per share, maintaining the “buy” rating for A+H shares.
Risk warning. Pipeline progress fell short of expectations, market competition exceeded expectations, and product volume fell short of expectations.