Core views:
The company's 24Q1 revenue and net profit before and after deduction were +85.0%, +445.1%, and +1094.7%, respectively. The company released its quarterly report for the year 24, and achieved revenue of 6.62 billion yuan in 24Q1, +85.0% year-on-year and -18.2% month-on-month. According to the Production and Sales Express, the company's 24Q1 wholesale sales volume was 80,000 vehicles, +74.2% year over year and -24.5% month over month. The year-over-year trend in revenue is consistent with sales volume. In 24Q1, the company achieved net profit of 6.6 billion yuan and 570 million yuan before and after deduction, respectively, +445.1%, +1094.7%, and -14.3% and -9.4% month-on-month. The 24Q1 net operating cash flow+receivables financing value added was $3.21 billion, +644.5% year over year and +1092.3% month over month.
The company's 24Q1 gross profit margin and net profit margin were +3.4pct and +6.5pct, respectively. 24Q1 gross profit margin and net margin were +3.4pct and +6.5pct, respectively, and -7.1pct and +0.4pct month-on-month, respectively. 24Q1 labor costs (payment of cash to employees+added value payable to employee remuneration) +8.9% YoY, +2.1% month-on-month; labor cost ratio -7.6pct YoY, +2.2pct month-on-month. The cost rate for the 24Q1 period was -7.3 pct year on year, -0.1 pct month on month, sales, management, R&D, and finance cost rates were -1.7 pct, -2.0pct, -3.5pct, and -0.1 pct, and +0.8pct, +0.5pct, -1.3pct, and -0.2pct, month-on-month, respectively.
Exports from the large and Chinese customer industry have become an important growth point in recent years, and Yutong's exports as a leading enterprise have continued to grow. According to China Passenger Network, 2024Q1 China exported 80,000 large and medium passenger vehicles, +67.6% year over year; Yutong exported 30,000 large and medium passenger vehicles, +94.8% year over year. The share of exports in the sales volume of the large and medium passenger industry and the share of exports in Yutong's sales volume reached 40.2% and 36.6% respectively in 2024Q1.
Profit forecast and investment advice: As a leader in the bus industry, the company continues to expand its market share overseas with excellent international competitiveness. At the same time, the increase in the share of exports in the company's sales volume has led to an optimization of the product structure and an increase in overall gross margin. We expect the company's 24-26 EPS to be 1.24/1.51/1.81 yuan/share, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, and considering that the company's products are internationally competitive and insist on high dividends, we will give the company 25 times PE in 24 years, with a corresponding reasonable value of 30.98 yuan/share. For the first time, we covered it and gave it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Industry prosperity is declining; raw material prices are rising; industry competition is intensifying.