The company released the 2023 annual report and the 2024 quarterly report: 2023 revenue of 17.4 billion yuan, +82% year-on-year; net loss to mother was 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year narrowing. 2024Q1's revenue was 5.4 billion yuan, +75% year over year; net loss to mother was 1.9 billion yuan, narrowing year over year. The increase in both revenue and profit was mainly due to the increase in sales of the company's core products and the improvement of operating efficiency through expense management.
The volume of core products is strong, and the internationalization process is smooth. According to the company's 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report, Baiyueze: Global sales in 2023 were 9.1 billion yuan, +139% year over year, and 2024Q1 sold 3.5 billion yuan, +140% year over year. All 5 indications approved domestically are covered by national health insurance; overseas, multiple indications have been approved in 70 markets. R/R FL has been approved by the FDA, the European Union, and Canada, and is expected to be approved domestically in June 2024. Baizean: 12 indications have been approved in China. CDE is reviewing marketing applications for 3 perioperative indications of first-line GC/GEJC, first-line ES-SCLC, and NSCLC; overseas, the FDA and EMA are reviewing their marketing applications to treat first-line ESCC and first-line GC/GEJC.
Innovative research and development continues, and many research pipelines are worth looking forward to. According to the company's 2023 annual report, Sonrotoclax: has promoted global phase III clinical trials for first-line CLL and three potentially registrable phase II clinical trials for WM, MCL, and CLL/SLL. BGB-16673: Two global expansion cohort studies for R/R CLL and R/R MCL have been initiated. Ociperlimab: Phase III clinical enrollment for first-line NSCLC has been completed. Zenidazumab: A marketing application for second-line treatment of biliary tract cancer will be submitted to the CDE. The company will promote multiple new molecules into clinical practice, including pan-KRAS, MTA co-PRMT5 inhibitors, EGFR-CDAC, CDK2 inhibitors, multiple ADCs, and dual antibodies.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated at 249/307/36.6 billion yuan. International sales of the company's core products are strong. Using DCF valuation, a reasonable value of 180.02 yuan/share (HK$200.02 per share, reference exchange rate 0.9) was obtained, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Risk of clinical failure, review and approval progress falling short of expectations, sales falling short of expectations, etc.