Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Considering the pace of product sales and incentive cost amortization, the 2024-2025 EPS forecast was lowered to 0.91/1.16 yuan (originally 0.93/1.29 yuan), and the 2026 EPS forecast was 1.40 yuan. Referring to comparable company valuations, the target price was lowered to 30.03 yuan for the 2024 PE33X, and the target price was lowered to 30.03 yuan to maintain the incremental rating.
2024Q1 results fell short of expectations. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 3.477 billion yuan (+10.14%), net profit of 861 million yuan (loss reversal), and non-net profit of 722 million yuan (reversal of loss). The performance was in line with expectations: Q1 in 2024 achieved revenue of 452 million yuan (-39.65%), net profit to mother of 54 million yuan (-73.69%), and net profit of 14 million yuan (-92.42%). The performance was lower than expected.
Conventional vaccines are growing steadily, and the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine is being released rapidly. In 2023, routine vaccines achieved revenue of 3.05 billion yuan (+18.98%), of which sales revenue of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine increased 55.64% year on year, and sales revenue of the 23-valent pneumopolysaccharide vaccine increased 36.88% year on year. The quadruple vaccine and hepatitis B vaccine are expected to be relatively stable. The new human diploid rabies vaccine has now been approved in 20 provinces, regions/municipalities, and will be marketed and sold in April 2024, which is expected to become a new performance growth point.
The product line is rich in reserves, and internationalization is progressing steadily. The company has more than 30 projects in the research pipeline, and IPV applications for production registration have been accepted: adsorbed tetanus and quadrivalent influenza vaccines are in the 1/Sichuan phase clinical trial stage: phase III clinical preparation for the component 100 white vaccine. Internationalization is progressing steadily, and cooperation agreements have been reached with more than 10 countries including Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Bangladesh on matters such as the registration, listing, and commercialization of products such as 13-valent and 23-valent pneumonia vaccines and chickenpox vaccines overseas. In October 2023, the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine was approved for marketing in Indonesia, which is expected to contribute to a new increase in performance in 24 years.
Risk warning: Vaccine development and sales fall short of expectations: progress in internationalization falls short of expectations