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大行评级|建银国际:上调中海油、中石油目标价 下调中石化评级至“中性”

Major Bank Ratings | CCB International: Raising CNOOC and CNPC Target Prices and Lowering Sinopec Ratings to “Neutral”

Gelonghui Finance ·  May 14 10:41
Glonghui, May 14 | CCB International released a report saying that oil prices have been adjusted recently, but oil stocks have performed well. The stock prices of large oil stocks listed in Hong Kong rose by an average of 6% in April. Sinopec saw the biggest increase, with CNOOC and CNPC rising by 6% and 3%, respectively. According to the report, the outlook for crude oil prices is optimistic. It is still optimistic about the recovery in global demand, and it is expected that supply risks will continue. The bank predicts that the price of Brandt crude oil will rise 7%, 2%, and 2% from 2024 to 2026 to $88, $90 and $92 per barrel, respectively. The forecast was 6%, 13%, and 15% higher than the market forecast, respectively. Compared with the forecast in October last year, the bank lowered the 2024 and 2025 Brent crude oil price forecasts by 6% and 8%, respectively, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's delay in interest rate hikes and the slow recovery of mainland demand in the first quarter. CCB International continues to be optimistic about CNOOC. It is expected that in the next few years, its profit growth will surpass rivals in the context of strong oil and gas production, maintain a “outperform the market” rating, raise its target share price from HK$21.3 to HK$22, and raise its profit forecast. The bank raised CNPC's net profit forecast for the 2024 and 2025 fiscal years by 18% and 25%, respectively, to reflect that the profit for the first quarter exceeded expectations, raised the target price from HK$6.4 to HK$8.3, and reaffirmed the “outperform the market” rating. In view of Sinopec's first-quarter results falling short of expectations, oil and gas production guidelines for the 2024 fiscal year, and concerns that profits from downstream refined oil products and chemical businesses would be squeezed, the 2024 and 2025 net profit forecasts were lowered by 12% and 10%, respectively. The rating was downgraded from “outperforming the market” to “neutral”, and the target price was lowered from HK$5.5 to HK$5.

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