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香农芯创(300475):Q1营收同增47% 持续关注存储复苏及新品进展

Shannon Xinchuang (300475): Q1 revenue increased 47% and continued to focus on storage recovery and new product development

中泰證券 ·  May 13

Q1 revenue also increased 47%, inventory increased, and changes in fair value affected Q1 apparent profit.

1) 2023: Revenue of 11.3 billion yuan, -18% year-on-year, net profit of 380 million yuan, +20% year-on-year, deducted non-300 million yuan, +19% year-on-year. Gross profit margin 6%, yoy+1pcts, net profit margin 3%, yoy+1pcts. Non-recurring profit and loss of 23 million yuan in 23 years, mainly income tax impact - 0.2 billion yuan, and income from changes in the fair value of shares held by Microchip Nano and Yongsilicon Electronics was 95 million yuan.

2) 23Q4: Revenue of 3.63 billion yuan, +21% YoY, +10% month-on-month net profit, net profit of 160 million yuan, +2% YoY, +303% month-on-month, net profit margin of 8%, year-on-year flat, +4pcts month-on-month, net interest rate 4%, yoy-1pcts, month-on-month +3pcts.

3) 24Q1: Revenue of 2.30 billion yuan, +47% YoY, -37% month-on-month, net profit of 0.1 billion yuan, -83% YoY, -91% month-on-month, net profit margin of 5%, YoY +193%, month-on-month -68%, gross profit margin of 5%, YoY -1 pcts, YoY -3 pcts, net profit margin 0.5%, YoY -5 pcts, 4-pcts month-on-month. Non-recurrent losses - RMB 0.4 billion, mainly losses of changes in fair value of shares held by Microguide Nano and Yongsilicon Electronics - RMB 54 million. Inventory at the end of 23Q4 was 1.44 billion yuan, and inventory at the end of 24Q1 was 1.68 billion yuan. Inventories increased month-on-month.

Q1 is usually a low season. The company continues to benefit from a recovery in the storage cycle, etc., and revenue increased 47% year over year, but due to seasonal factors, there was a month-on-month decline due to seasonal factors, and fair value losses affected apparent net profit due to holding shares in Microchip Nano and Yongsilicon Electronics.

Continuously optimize the shareholder structure. In January 2024, the controlling shareholder Cornerstone Investment transferred 5%/5%/5.2% of its shares to Xinlianpu, Fang Haibo and New Kinetic Energy Fund respectively, holding 35.88% of the shares before the transfer and 20.68% of the shares after the transfer. Mr. Huang, co-chairman of Shannon and founder of Co-Chuangtai, holds 60% of Xinlianpu's shares. The People's Government of Xinwu District of Wuxi holds 100% of the New Kinetic Energy Fund. Wuxi Hynix is located in Xinwu District of Wuxi City.

Electronic component distribution: Hynix cloud server storage is the largest local agent in mainland China, with accurate card slots. Co-Chuangtai is the 22nd largest distributor of electronic components in the world and the fourth largest in mainland China. It has established long-term and stable business partnerships with leading original manufacturers such as SK Hynix and MTK MediaTek. In 22Q1, the procurement ratio from Hynix and MediaTek reached 80% and 18%, covering leading domestic Internet manufacturers and server manufacturers. Hynix has a total of 6 agents in mainland China. The company is the largest agent for its cloud service storage products. The agent products include high-end memory such as DDR5 and HBM, which directly benefit from the demand related to AI servers. At the same time, mainstream storage has the strongest periodicity. The company enjoys great flexibility brought about by the recovery of the industry.

Storage module: Join hands with industry leaders to enter enterprise-grade SSD and other module products to open up room for growth. In 2023, the company established a joint venture with Dapuwei and others to establish enterprise SSDs with Haipu Storage layout. Among them, Shannon holds 35% of the shares, Dapuwei holds 20% of the shares, and Junhai Investment holds 15% of the shares (Hynix holds 36.53%). Dapuwei is a leading international supplier of storage chips and enterprise-grade SSDs. Based on domestic master control chips, the company first started with Xinchuang customers. According to Haipu Storage's official website, the enterprise-grade NVMe SSD passed the China Telecom test in April of this year, and the DDR4 RDIMM passed the Shenwei 3 processor environment adaptation test in March. The mainland enterprise-grade SSD market has been dominated by overseas for a long time, reaching a scale of 66.9 billion yuan in 2026. Domestic demand is strong, and the company is working with industry leaders to fill the gap in mainland China.

Investment advice: Shannon Xinchuang is the fourth largest distributor of electronic components in mainland China, and is also Hynix's largest cloud service storage agent. Customers have covered mainstream cloud vendors and high-end memory such as DDR5, which can be expected to directly benefit from server-related demand and storage recovery in the short term; the new business enterprise SSD and other layouts have been generating revenue for more than 1 year and are expected to generate revenue for 24 years, opening up room for long-term growth. The company's net profit for 24/25/26 is estimated to be 4.5/5.1/570 million yuan, corresponding to PE's valuation 35/30/27 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning events: New market development falls short of expectations, increased industry competition, risk of high supplier dependency, risk of a high share of the company's overseas business, risk of lagging data information

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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