Core view: In 2023, Yunda's strategy changed, and its network stability was gradually restored. However, due to competition in the external industry, the company's profits are still under pressure. In the first quarter, Yunda's share rebounded marginally, and the effects of strategic adjustments still need to be verified continuously.
Adjust profit forecasts and maintain an “gain” rating. In 2023, Yunda's business refocused on the main express delivery business, and carried out a series of measures such as stabilizing the franchisee network, reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and digital construction. The company network was gradually repaired. However, competition in the industry continues, and the company's performance is under pressure. Considering that it will take time to repair the company's franchisee network and there is still uncertainty about the price competition in the 2024 to 2024 industry, we adjusted the company's profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 20.7/25.4/2.87 billion yuan (the previous forecast was 30.2/3.72 billion yuan for 2024-2025). The year-on-year improvement in Yunda's market share and performance in the first quarter has shown the positive impact of the strategic shift, but it will take longer to rebuild confidence. We will continue to track the effects of the company's strategic adjustments and maintain the “gain” rating.
Net profit from a single ticket is still under pressure, shares have declined, and performance is still in the recovery stage. In 2023, Yunda achieved net profit of 1.63 billion yuan to mother, an increase of 9.6% over the previous year. Net profit after deduction was 1.39 billion yuan, an increase of 0.1% over the previous year. In terms of net profit for a single ticket, net profit for a single ticket in 2023 was 0.09 yuan, up 2.3% year on year. After deducting non-net profit of 0.07 yuan per ticket, a year-on-year decrease of 6 yuan.
5% In the first quarter, the company's net profit to mother was 410 million yuan, up 14.8% year on year, after deducting non-net profit of 390 million yuan, up 11.6% year on year. In terms of net profit from a single ticket, Yunda's net profit for a single ticket in the first quarter was 0.08 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. After deducting non-net profit of 0.08 yuan from a single ticket, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%. In terms of share, in 2023, Yunda completed a total business volume of 18.85 billion units, up 7.1% year on year, market share 14.3%, down 1.7 percentage points year on year. Yunda completed 4.94 billion units of business in the first quarter, up 29% year on year, market share 13.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year on year.
The network is gradually stabilizing, and costs have been greatly optimized. In 2023, the company used the “Co-operative Development Committee” organizational mechanism to help small, medium and weak outlets develop in a balanced manner, balance the interests of headquarters and outlets, and achieved certain results by adopting methods such as big belt and small belt, and old and new ones. In terms of cost, the company's core cost of a single ticket in 2023 was 0.87 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, or about 0.11 yuan. Among them, the transportation cost of a single ticket was 0.5 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%, a decrease of about 0.11 yuan, and the operating cost of a single ticket was 0.37 yuan, which is basically the same as in 2022.
Network repair takes time, and results still need to be verified. In 2023, the company has made many efforts in stabilizing the franchisee network, digital construction, and terminal distribution. Although market share and profits are slightly pressured by the external environment, they have gradually shown a trend of marginal improvement. Yunda is a leading player in the express delivery industry, and its asset strength is not lagging behind. As the stability of the franchisee network is gradually restored, the company's share and profit are expected to resume growth, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
Risk warning incident: The industry price war heightens the risk, and the risk that the research report uses information that is not updated in a timely manner.