经纪业务逆势发力，资管业务特色化突出。收费类业务方面，2023 年经纪、投行和资管净收入分别为3.51、1.90 和9.05 亿元，同比分别-8.6%、-31.8%和-12.1%；24Q1 分别为0.84、0.65、2.26 亿元，同比分别-4.8%、+41.6%和-1.8%。公司经纪净收入随行就市，2023 年代买/席位/代销净收入同比-7.6%/-14.5%/-1.3%，但公司坚持拓客和打造投顾体系，2023 年公司新增客户10.22 万户，金融产品销售规模同比增长15%至116 亿元；公司2023 年定增和债权总承销金额分别为27、125 亿元，公司在固收产品销售上优势显著，2023 年销售固收各品种共1772 亿元，同比+2.26%；公司资管业务特色化优势显著，截至2023 年末，公司资管规模较年初增长11%至612 亿元，旗下公募创金合信公募规模较年初增长32%至275 亿元。Key points of investment
First Venture released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, it achieved revenue and net profit of 24.89 billion yuan and 331 million yuan, respectively; 24Q1 achieved revenue and net profit of 6.73 billion yuan and 143 million yuan, respectively, -2.7% and +1.6% year over year; the weighted average ROE in 2023 was -0.51 pct to 2.3% year on year, and 24Q1 remained basically the same; after excluding customer capital, operating leverage was 2.36 times. Down 9.3% from early 2023.
Capital businesses are the winners and losers in performance, and costs have a certain degree of rigidity. On the revenue side, in 2023, the company achieved fee revenue of 1,525 billion yuan, and capital business revenue of +32.3% to 831 million yuan under capital market restoration; 24Q1 achieved fee and capital revenue of 381 million yuan and 271 million yuan, respectively, of -0.9% and -4.8% year-on-year. On the expenditure side, the company's management expenses in 2023 remained flat; the 24Q1 management expenses ratio was +1.5pct to 72.9% year on year, and the overall asset quality was relatively stable.
The brokerage business bucked the trend, and the asset management business had outstanding characteristics. In terms of fee business, net revenue from brokerage, investment banks and asset management in 2023 was $351, 1.90 million, and 905 million yuan, respectively, -8.6%, -31.8%, and -12.1% year-on-year, respectively; 24Q1 was 0.84, 0.65, and 226 million yuan, respectively, -4.8%, +41.6%, and -1.8% year-on-year, respectively. The company's net brokerage revenue followed the market. In 2023, net revenue from purchases/seats/consignment sales was -7.6%/-14.5%/-1.3%, but the company insisted on building an investment system. The company added 102,200 new customers in 2023, and the sales scale of financial products increased 15% year-on-year to 11.6 billion yuan; the company's fixed increase and total debt underwriting amounts in 2023 were 2.7 billion yuan and 12.5 billion yuan respectively. The company had significant sales advantages in fixed income products. The total sales revenue in 2023 was 177.2 billion yuan, +2.26% over the same period last year; the company's asset management The advantages of business specialization are remarkable. By the end of 2023, the company's asset management scale had increased 11% from the beginning of the year to 61.2 billion yuan, and its public offering scale had increased 32% from the beginning of the year to 275 billion yuan.
Interest income has declined, and bond assets are the main allocation direction. In terms of capital business, net interest income and investment revenue in 2023 were 0.79 million yuan and 753 million yuan, respectively, -62.3% and +79.3% year-on-year, respectively; 24Q1 was 0.14 billion yuan and 257 million yuan, respectively, -48.9% and -0.1% year-on-year, respectively. The sharp decline in net interest income was mainly due to a decrease in interest income due to a decrease in the scale of stock pledges, while interest expenses on sale and repurchase increased; as of the end of March 2024, financing capital was +11% compared to the beginning of 2023 to 6.8 billion yuan. Since 2023, the company has maintained a stable balance sheet. Among them, bond assets are the main allocation direction. At the end of March 2024, the size of financial assets decreased by 10% from the beginning of 2023 to 201 billion yuan, and bond assets in 2023 fell 15% to 15 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, accounting for 70% of financial assets.
The company is a characteristic small to medium brokerage firm, and I am optimistic that the company will use its characteristic advantages to reap profits. We expect the company's 2024-2025 net profit of 3.41 million yuan and 407 million yuan, +3.0% and +19.5% compared to the same period. The closing price on May 10, 2024 corresponds to PB 1.58 and 1.54 times, respectively, giving it an “increase” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of large capital market fluctuations, macroeconomic downside risk, risk of market share growth falling short of expectations, risk of new business development falling short of expectations.
