复调增速亮眼，轻烹寻求破局。1）分产品看：复合调味料2023 年收入11.45 亿元(+29.32%)，2023Q4 和2024Q1 分别同比+19.46%、+27.70%；轻烹解决方案2023 年收入10.24 亿元(+1.39%)，2023Q4 和2024Q1 分别同比-4.26%、+5.76%；饮品甜点配料2023 年收入1.43 亿元(+8.28%)，2023Q4 和2024Q1 分别同比+35.11%、+0.56%。Description of the event
In 2023, the company achieved total operating income of 2,369 million yuan (+16.31%); net profit to mother of 301 million yuan (+39.78%), after deducting non-net profit of 219 million yuan (+12.66%). Total operating income of 2023Q4 was 610 million yuan (+8.61%), net profit attributable to mother was 60.462 million yuan (-2.98%), after deducting non-net profit of 38.7767 million yuan (-28.45%). Total operating income of 2024Q1 was 624 million yuan (+15.72%); net profit attributable to mother was 607.964 million yuan (-20.36%), after deducting non-net profit of 52.3699 million yuan (-7.04%).
Incident comments
The growth rate of repetition is impressive, and light cooking seeks to break the game. 1) By product: Compound seasoning's 2023 revenue of 1,145 million yuan (+29.32%), 2023Q4 and 2024Q1 were +19.46% and +27.70%, respectively; light cooking solutions had 2023 revenue of 1,024 million yuan (+1.39%), 2023Q4 and 2024Q1 were -4.26% and +5.76%, respectively; beverage dessert ingredients had revenue of 143 million yuan (+8.28%) in 2023, and 2023Q4 and 2024Q1, respectively. 35.11%, +0.56%
2) By model: Direct sales revenue of 1,903 billion yuan (+12.81%), 2023Q4 and 2024Q1 were +10.22% and +16.05%, respectively; the largest customer, Yum Sheng China, had revenue of 394 million yuan (+38.26%), and the top five customers had a total revenue of 737 million yuan (+30.17%); non-direct sales 2023 revenue of 408 million yuan (+20.17%); 2023Q4 and 2024Q1 were -3.46% and +12.01%, respectively. There were 387 dealers at the end of March 2024. In 2023, the company's online sales revenue was 790 million yuan (-3.51%). In 2023, Kongke Network achieved operating revenue of 866 million yuan, net profit of 40 million yuan, and a net profit margin of 4.57%. In 2023, the “618 Big Promotion” and sales of the entire Double Eleven network exceeded 100 million yuan and 140 million yuan.
Profit margins are under pressure in the short term, and the impact on minority shareholders' profits and losses is obvious. The company's net income margin increased by 2.13pct to 12.71% in 2023, gross margin -1.43pct to 33.14%, and the period expense ratio -0.94pct to 19.29%, including sales expense ratio (-0.61pct), management expense ratio (-0.06pct), R&D expense ratio (-0.15pct), and financial expense ratio (-0.12pct).
The net interest rate due to 2023Q4 fell 1.18pct to 9.85%, gross margin -4.40pct to 30.95%, and the period expense ratio -1.34pct to 20.08%, including sales expense ratio (-0.09pct), management expense ratio (-1.20pct), R&D expense ratio (+0.05pct), and financial expense ratio (-0.09pct). The net interest rate due to 2024Q1 fell 4.41pct to 9.74%, gross margin -3.05pct to 32.04%, and the period expense ratio -1.56pct to 18.97%, including sales expense ratio (-1.24pct), management expense ratio (-0.14pct), R&D expense ratio (-0.26pct), and financial expense ratio (+0.08pct). 2023 compound gross profit margin 21.17% (-3.71pct), light cooking solution 49.91% (+4.90pct). Zhejiang Baoli completed a capital increase and holding in November 2023, and the company's shareholding ratio was reduced by 40%. The company achieved net profit of 704.05 million in 2023, and the profit and loss of the company's 2023Q4 and 2024Q1 minority shareholders were 6.2842 million yuan and 6.2976 million yuan respectively.
R&D and innovation capabilities are strengthened, and we are optimistic about the company's ability to expand. The company's B-side sells more than 2,500 products throughout the year, of which the number of products developed in the past three years accounts for nearly 60%, and the scope of application covers many categories such as staple foods, casual snacks, tea and coffee, iced desserts, etc.; the company's C-end brand empty pasta continues to explore product flavors and categories. The company has entered the baking circuit and will combine bakery products to provide customers with comprehensive scenario solutions.
Profit forecast and investment advice: Net profit due to mother for 2024-2026 is expected to be $2.60, 3.12, and 384 million yuan, EPS is 0.65, 0.78, and 0.96 yuan, respectively. The current stock price PE is 23, 19, and 15X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Food safety risks;
2. The risk of fluctuations in raw material prices;
3. New product development and market competition risks.
