Source: Wall Street News Author: Li Dan

The New York Federal Reserve announced on Monday that US consumer expectations for April both inflation and housing prices will rise at an accelerated pace, bringing bad news that inflation is heating up and suppressing the prospects for interest rate cuts. After expectations hovered around 3% for the previous four months, the inflation rate for the next year expected in April rose to 3.3%, a five-month high. At the same time, housing prices are also expected to rise by 3.3%, the biggest increase since July 2022.

Institutions expect that the April US CPI announced on Wednesday will ease upward pressure on inflation, and Morgan Stanley believes that the CPI growth rate will be significantly lower than expected. J.P. Morgan's trading department said investors are preparing for large swings in the Standard 500 Index after the CPI release. The options market's daily break-even balance shows traders betting that S&P will rise or fall 1% after the CPI is announced.

On Monday, gains in US stocks were limited before the big CPI was announced this Wednesday. The three major stock indexes have all declined in the intraday period, and the Dow may end its continuous upward trend of more than a week. Tech giants have had mixed ups and downs. According to the media, Meta is researching and developing AI headsets, and Meta, which has been rising for more than a week, is still falling; while Tesla rebounded; OpenAI launched its new flagship AI model GPT-4O just the day before Google held a developer conference. The much-anticipated AI search engine was not released. Google's parent company turned up after falling nearly 3% at the beginning of the market. After the media said that Arm will produce AI chips, most chip stocks such as Arm continued to rise.

What excites US stock investors even more than blue-chip technology stocks is that Keith Gill, who became famous in 2021 by calling for short-term traders to go short on US stock bars, returned to social media X after a lapse of three years. The “number one bulldog” that set off a retail battle on Wall Street three years ago is likely to sound the trumpet of renewed strength. Three years ago, the core individual stock game station of the empty market surged by nearly 120% in the Monday market. Many other retail investors joined groups and US stocks on the forum$Reddit (RDDT.US) $As well as the influencer brokerage preferred by retail investors$Robinhood (HOOD.US) $It also went higher. China Securities also outperformed the market, including Extreme Krypton, which debuted last Friday and rose more than 30%. Some Chinese securities surged more than 10% in the intraday period. Before the earnings report was announced on Tuesday$Alibaba (BABA.US) $Following the rise in Hong Kong stocks.

In early trading on Monday, the difference between Goldman Sachs tracking the hedge fund VIP index, which has the greatest influence on hedge funds to prolong portfolios, and Goldman Sachs tracking the most shorting individual stocks, plummeted 7%, the biggest drop since 2021

After the announcement of the New York Federal Reserve's consumer inflation forecast, US Treasury bond prices narrowed intraday gains, yields gradually smoothed out most of the day's declines, and the US dollar index narrowed more than half of the intraday decline, yet failed to maintain last Friday's rebound. While the dollar's decline was narrowing, the yen's intraday decline against the US dollar widened, falling below 156.00 for the first time since May 1, and the offshore renminbi falling 7.24 for the first time in more than a week.

Among commodities, London basic metals generally rose, and Luntong, which hit the 10,000 US dollar mark on Friday, rose further and hit a new high in two weeks. However, some analysts warned that copper prices had already reached an overbought flagship. CFTC data showed that the size of speculative net long positions in copper futures was close to the highest level in history; New York gold futures, which had closed at a high level for three weeks last week, fell back to the biggest daily decline since entering this month. Commenting that before the big CPI was announced, some investors chose to take profits back.

The rebound in international crude oil, which turned low in the intraday session last Friday, was partly due to expectations of strong demand for gasoline for cars in the US. The American Automobile Association predicts that travel activity during the US Memorial Day holiday this year will peak since 2005, and road travel will drop to a new high since 2000. Furthermore, China's three-month rise in CPI reflects a response in consumer demand, and the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds with a total scale of 1 trillion yuan began this Friday, which also boosted oil market sentiment.

The S&P Dow retreated from a nearly six-week high, and the NASDAQ rebounded, Tesla stopped four consecutive declines, Game Station closed up more than 74%, and the Chinese stock index rebounded to an eight-month high

The three major US stock indexes collectively opened higher and all fell in early trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 130 points and rose more than 0.3% in early trading. It turned down at the end of early trading and fell nearly 110 points at a fresh low in midday trading.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US) $It rose nearly 0.3% at the beginning of the session. At the end of early trading, it turned down less than 0.1%, then turned up before noon trading. After falling again in midday trading, it fell more than 0.2% at the new low of the day, and turned up in the short term at the end of the session.$NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US) $It rose 0.4%, then turned slightly lower in the short term.

In the end, only the three major indices closed higher, up 0.29% to 16,388.24 points, breaking the closing high since April 11 set last Monday after falling back last Friday. The Dow closed down 81.33 points, or 0.21%, ending the longest continuous increase since December 19, 2023, after eight consecutive trading days, at 39431.51 points. After two consecutive days of gains, S&P closed down 0.02% to 5221.42 points. Both the Dow and the Dow remained at their closing high since April 1.

Technology stocks are important$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US) $It closed up 0.21%, rising for three consecutive days, breaking the high level since April 11 on the 3rd. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology components in the Nasdaq 100 Index, closed up 0.31%, rising for two consecutive years until April 11. The small-cap stock index Russell 2000, which is mainly value stocks, closed up 0.11%, and did not continue to fall from the high level since April 9, which was set by the rebound last Thursday.

Among the constituent stocks of the Dow Index, which closed up 2.6% last Friday, led the way$McDonald's (MCD.US) $It fell more than 1.3%,$Home Depot (HD.US) $und$American Express (AXP.US) $It also fell by more than 1%. Intel rose more than 2%, leading the increase, with an increase of nearly 2%$Nike (NKE.US) $It was followed by Apple in third place of increase. Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, only chip stocks, which rose nearly 0.5%, and real estate, which rose nearly 0.3%, closed higher on Monday. The nine sectors that closed down fell less than 0.5%. The industry with the biggest decline fell by less than 0.5%, and utilities fell slightly.

The Nasdaq 100 Index, which focuses on technology stocks, closed up 0.21%, rising for three consecutive days and breaking its closing high since April 11 on the 3rd. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology components in the Nasdaq 100 Index, closed up 0.31%, rising for two consecutive days, breaking the high level since April 11 set last Monday. The small-cap stock index Russell 2000, which is mainly value stocks, closed up 0.11%, and did not continue to fall from the high level since April 9, which was set by the rebound last Thursday.

ranging$ Microsoft (MSFT.US) $,$apple (AAPL.US) $,$Nvidia (NVDA.US) $,$google-A (GOOGL.US) $Parent company Alphabet,$Amazon (AMZN.US) $, Facebook parent company$Meta Platforms (META.US) $,$ Tesla (TSLA.US) $Among the tech giants “Seven Sisters,” only Tesla and Apple have not declined in the market. Among them, Tesla, which had the best performance, rose 4.1% in early trading, closed up 2%, and rebounded after falling for four consecutive days until the closing low since April 26.

Among the six major FAANMG technology stocks, Microsoft, which had been rising for the first time since April 12, fell more than 0.9% and closed down 0.3% after turning down at the beginning of the session; Meta closed down 1.7%, falling to the highest level since April 24; Amazon turned down at the beginning of the session, closing down nearly 0.5%, and continued to rebound from last Thursday to a high level in closing history; after the media said that Apple was preparing to sell Pro for the first time outside the US, Apple closed up nearly 1.8% and rebounded to a high closing position since February 12; Google Vision held Google I on Tuesday Before the developer conference, Alphabet fell nearly 2.7% at the beginning of the session, evened out the decline, closed up nearly 0.4%, and rebounded after falling back last Friday; the one that turned down at the beginning of the session$Netflix (NFLX.US) $It turned higher at the end of early trading, closing up more than 0.9%, and rebounded to a high level since April 16 after falling back last Friday.

Chip stocks have generally risen,$Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US) $SOXX, an ETF for the semiconductor industry, rose 0.8% in early trading, closing up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, for two consecutive days, breaking the high since April 11 set last Monday. Among chip stocks, Nvidia fell 1.5% after falling at the beginning of the market. It turned slightly higher in early trading, and closed up nearly 0.6%, continuing to break away from the low level since May 2, which was refreshed after three consecutive days of decline last Thursday; Arm closed up 7.7%; at the close, Intel rose more than 2%.$Micron Technology (MU.US) $An increase of more than 1%,$Broadcom (AVGO.US) $Up nearly 0.4%, while closing last Friday with an increase of more than 4%$TSMC (TSM.US) $US stocks fell 1.9%, and AMD, which turned down in midday trading, fell 0.9%.

Most AI concept stocks rose. SoundHound.ai (SOUN) rose more than 8%, and BigBear.ai (BBAI) rose 5.8%,$C3.ai (AI.US) $Up more than 4%, $Palantir (PLTR.US) $It rose more than 1%, and is known as “Little Nvidia” and sells data center interconnect chips$Astera Labs (ALAB.US) $Up nearly 0.3%,$Adobe (ADBE.US) $It rose nearly 0.2%, while$Ultra Microcomputer (SMCI.US) $It fell nearly 2%,$Oracle (ORCL.US) $It fell nearly 0.3%.

Among WSB concept stocks,$Gaming Station (GME.US) $The increase in early trading once extended to over 110%, triggering suspension of trading at least four times during the day. Since then, some gains have narrowed and closed up 74.4%. S3 Partners data shows that short sellers of this individual stock have already lost a total of 1 billion US dollars due to Monday's intraday surge; at the close of trading,$AMC Cinemas (AMCUS) $78.4%, Koss (KOSS) rose 36.7%, Blackberry (BB) rose 6.9%, while early trading had an increase of 18.2%$Express (EXPRQ.US) $It fell 4.2%. Benefiting from the sharp rise in retail group stocks, the US stock market on Tieba rose more than 10% in the Reddit forum and closed up 8.7%, while Robinhood rose more than 5% in the intraday market, closing up nearly 4.1%.

Popular Chinese securities generally rebounded and outperformed the market. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose nearly 4.3% in early trading and closed up more than 3.7%. After falling back last Friday, it rebounded to its closing high since September 2023. Among the new car builders, Extreme Krypton, which surged nearly 35% last Friday, rose more than 14% in early trading and closed up nearly 2.8%. NIO Auto, which had risen nearly 12% in early trading, closed up 6.7%, and rose more than 9% in early trading$Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV.US) $It closed up 4.7%, and rose nearly 4% in early trading$Ideal Auto (LI.US) $It closed up 1.2%, and the Xiaomi powder list also closed up more than 1%. Among the other individual stocks, Station B rose more than 12% at the close of trading.$Big New Energy (DQ.US) $Up about 5%,$Jinko Energy (JKS.US) $It rose more than 4%. Alibaba, which will release its earnings report on Tuesday, rose 5.7%, Tencent fan rose nearly 3.5%, and JD rose nearly 5%.$Pinduoduo (PDD.US) $An increase of more than 3%,$Baidu (BIDU.US) $Up nearly 2.9%,$NetEase (NTES.US) $Up nearly 1%. Currently, institutions generally expect both Ali and Tencent's revenue to increase by more than 5% year-on-year in the first quarter. Orient Securities expects Taotian Group's GMV growth to accelerate in the first quarter, and CMR is expected to exceed expectations.

The bank stock index declined after three days of continuous gains. Overall banking indicators$KBW Bank Index (.BKX.US) $It closed down 0.4%, falling from the high level since March 2023, which had been refreshed for three consecutive days; the regional bank index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX), which had refreshed its high level since March 28 for three consecutive days, closed down nearly 0.5%, and the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) closed down 0.1%.

In terms of European stocks, the pan-European stock index closed slightly higher, barely rising for seven consecutive trading days. The European Stoxx 600 Index closed at a record high for five consecutive days. Major European stock indexes had mixed ups and downs on Monday. German, French and British stocks fell back after six consecutive days of gains. British stocks and German stocks fell to the historical closing levels set for 6 consecutive days and 3 consecutive days, respectively. French stocks also bid farewell to the historical closing levels refreshed last Friday, while Italian stocks and Western stocks rose for 3 and 2 consecutive days, respectively.

Among the various sectors, automobiles closed up nearly 1.4%, stopping a four-day decline; the medical sector rose nearly 0.7%, thanks to the Danish Medicines Agency, the country is facing in the next few months$Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) $Its weight loss drug Wegovy was in short supply, and Europe's highest market capitalization pharmaceutical company Nuova and Nord closed up 3% since then. Among other individual stocks, when freight rates were rising, Danish-listed shipping giant Maersk surged 7.7%, leading the way in Stoke's constituent stocks.

After US consumer inflation expectations, US bond yields narrowed, and most declines

The yield on US 10-year benchmark treasury bonds was close to 4.50% at the beginning of the European market, breaking 4.46% in the pre-market session, and is still close to the low level since April 10, which was refreshed by 4.42% last Tuesday. After the announcement of US consumer inflation expectations in early trading, the decline narrowed. It was close to rising and rising 4.49%. By the end of the bond market, it fell less than 1 basis point during the day. The yield on other US bonds declined slightly after rebounding last Friday.

The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell 4.83% to a new low. After consumer inflation expectations were announced, the recovery accelerated. US stocks rose 4.86% in midday trading, about 4.86% at the end of the bond market, and fell less than 1 basis point during the day, close to the intraday high level since May 3, which was refreshed by 4.87% last Friday.

The US dollar index narrowed by more than half after US consumer inflation expectations, and the yen hit a new low in more than a week

The ICE dollar index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rate of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, including the euro, rose above 105.30 in early Asian trading, rising less than 0.1% during the day. European stocks continued to decline after turning down before the market. US stocks fell below a fresh daily low of 105.10 and fell more than 0.2% during the day. After the announcement of the US stock market's inflation forecast in early trading of the New York Federal Reserve, the decline narrowed rapidly, falling less than 0.1% during the day.

By the close of the US stock market on Monday, the US dollar index was above 105.20, falling less than 0.1% during the day. After rebounding last Friday, it fell on the second day of the last six trading days; the Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against ten other currencies, had largely settled, and the momentum of last Friday's rebound subsided.

Among non-US currencies, the yen fell for two days in a row. The dollar rose above 156.20 against the US stock market at noon, breaking the high level since May 1 set last Thursday, and rose 0.3% during the day; EUR/USD rose 1.0800 at the beginning of the European session, approaching the high level since April 10 set last Friday. It rose close to 0.4% during the day, and later recovered some of the gains. US stocks rose nearly 0.2% at the close of trading; GBP/USD approached 1.2570 in early trading, breaking the high level since last Monday and rising 0.4% during the day.

The offshore renminbi (CNH) reached a new high of 7.2326 against the US dollar in early Asian trading. The European market fell to 7.2434 at the beginning of the Asian session, falling 7.24 for the first time since May 2 to 7.2451, falling 108 points from the daily high. At 4:59 Beijing time on May 14, the offshore renminbi was 7.2397 yuan against the US dollar, down 56 points from the end of last Friday in New York.

It was above $63,000 before turning down last Friday$Bitcoin (BTC.CC) $In the US stock market, it rose above US$63,400, and on some platforms it rose above US$63,500, up more than 4% from the intraday low of US$60,800 in the Asian market, and rose more than 4%, breaking out of the low since May 3, which was refreshed by falling below US$60,300 last Friday. US stocks closed above US$63,000, rising nearly 3% in the last 24 hours.

Crude oil rebounded and rose more than 1% intraday, oil bid farewell to a seven-week low

International crude oil futures turned upward in the intraday period. At a new low in early Asian trading, US WTI crude oil fell below 77.80 US dollars and fell 0.6% during the day. Brent crude oil fell below 82.30 US dollars, falling more than 0.6% during the day. European stocks maintained their gains after turning up before the market. When US stocks hit a new high in early trading, US oil approached 79.50 US dollars, rising nearly 1.6% during the day, and oil rose above 83.80 US dollars. It rose nearly 1.3% during the day, none of which hit the intraday high since May 1, which was refreshed before the intraday period turned down last Friday.

In the end, crude oil, which stopped two consecutive gains last Friday, rebounded. WTI's June crude oil futures, which hit a closing low since May 3 last Friday, closed at $0.86, or 1.10%, at $79.12 per barrel, beginning to approach the high since April 30, which was refreshed last Thursday; Brent crude oil futures for July closed up $0.57, or 0.69%, to $82.79 per barrel, leaving the low since March 12, which was refreshed last Friday.

US gasoline and natural gas futures have rebounded. NYMEX's June gasoline futures closed up about 0.4% to $2.5105/gallon, breaking away from the low level since February 21, which was refreshed last Friday; NYMEX's June natural gas futures closed up 5.71% to $2.381 per million British thermal units, hitting a new closing high since the end of January after last Thursday.

Luntong hit a two-year high, and gold fell to a high level in three weeks to close, the biggest decline in the month

London basic metals futures rose sharply on Monday. Renxi, which led the rise, rose nearly 2.6%, closing close to the 33,000 US dollar mark, a new high since late April, and Lunn Nickel, Lunn Lead, and Lunaluminum all rebounded after falling back last Friday. Lunnickel and lun lead rose more than 1%. Lunnickel is close to the one-week high level set last Tuesday, and Lunn lead refreshed the high since November last year set last Tuesday. Luntong rose more than 1%, rising for two consecutive days, closing above the 10,000 US dollar mark and rising above 10,000 US dollars, breaking the high since April 2022 set two weeks ago. Lunzinc rose nearly 2.3% for three consecutive days, closing close to the $3,000 mark for the first time since March last year.

Gold generally maintained its downward trend on Monday. When US stocks hit a new low in early trading, New York gold futures fell to $2337.6, falling nearly 1.6% during the day. Spot gold fell below $2,333, falling nearly 1.2% during the day.

By the close of midday US stock futures, COMEX's June gold futures closed down 1.35%, the biggest daily decline since April 30, at $2,343 per ounce, falling to the closing high since April 19, which was refreshed at $2,375 on Friday.

At the close of the US stock market, spot gold was below $2,340 and fell about 1% during the day, falling from the intraday high since April 21, when it rose above $2,378 on Friday.

edit/lambor