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Hong Kong stocks! Hong Kong stocks! More than 210 billion dollars in capital, speeding up the rush to raise funds from the south!

券商中國 · May 13 22:36

来源：券商中国
作者：戚悟

近日，港股持续走强，短暂盘整后，又连续上涨3日。截至5月13日，$恒生指数 (800000.HK)$站稳19000点，年内累计涨幅超12%，创9个月以来新高。

港股持续反弹，南向资金并未放缓净买入步伐，5月13日单日净买入港股88.07亿港元，年内累计净买入港股达到2336.62亿港元（折合人民币超2100亿元），占去年累计净买入金额的七成，资金抢筹意愿强烈。

在基本面并未有大幅改善的背景下，港股市场反弹被普遍认为由资金推动。南向资金持续净流入港股市场，为港股筑底起到了积极作用，4月11日后外资大幅流入港股，两者合力推动港股强势上涨。

展望后市，有机构表示，港股本轮上涨有望延续，将由$恒生科技指数 (800700.HK)$逐渐切换至高股息板块。未来南向资金定价权有望大幅提升，代替外资主导港股风格。

南下资金踊跃

5月13日，恒生指数涨幅0.8%，收盘价突破19000点，恒生科技指数涨幅1.42%，$国企指数 (800100.HK)$涨幅0.64%。港股近期持续强势上涨，年内累计涨幅超12%，创9个月以来新高，引发市场普遍关注。

中信建投证券表示，近期港股强势上涨的核心原因在于资金面的改善。本轮上涨中，南向资金起先导作用，自2月起持续流入，由红利板块逐渐向其他板块扩散。4月11日后外资大幅流入港股，与内资共振推动本轮港股强势上涨。

交银国际表示赞同，4月以来港股持续反弹，市场最大买家是外资。自3月底至5月初，外资方面出现小幅净增持。

从南向资金流动来看，5月13日单日净买入港股88.07亿港元，为4月17日以来单日最高，资金抢筹迹象明显。

全年来看，南向资金累计净买入港股达到2336.62亿港元，占去年累计净买入金额的七成，资金抢筹意愿强烈。

港股市场的资源板块、互联网科技板块轮番上涨，带动市场交易情绪回暖。近期，港股地产板块反弹，叠加减免股息红利税传闻，港股市场迎来第二波反弹。

从板块表现来看，资讯、金融和地产板块近20日涨幅居前。今年以来，原材料、能源和资讯板块涨幅居前，医疗仍是表现最差板块，年内跌幅仍超16%。

港股标的基金扬眉吐气

港股市场持续反弹，亏损多年的港股标的ETF终于也迎来强势反弹。

近60日表现来看，港股通互联网ETF、港股通科技30ETF、港股互联网ETF、港股通互联网ETF区间涨幅均超40%，足以见得近期港股反弹之强势。

从跨境型ETF全年表现来看，港股标的ETF涨幅居前，场内交易的港股通红利ETF、港股国企ETF、港股红利ETF、港股国企ETF、H股ETF年内累计涨幅均超20%。

港股标的ETF表现力压欧美等市场ETF，成为今年QDII市场中表现最靓的仔。

港股标的ETF交易成交额持续放量，如5月13日，恒生互联网ETF单日成交额接近40亿元，恒生科技指数ETF、恒生科技ETF分别达到29.81亿元和26.14亿元。

一些港股主题主动权益基金亦有不错业绩表现。如前海开源沪港深汇鑫、嘉实沪港深回报、华泰柏瑞港股通量化、富国沪港深优质资产等含港量的基金年内业绩涨幅均超20%。

实际上，近年来港股市场表现不佳，多数投资者通过定投ETF参与港股投资，随着近期港股市场反弹，持有港股ETF的投资者总体亏损逐步缩小。而主动权益基金经理更是积极拥抱港股，底部不断加仓港股。

如易方达蓝筹精选基金披露的一季报显示，张坤继续增仓港股市场，通过港股通持有的股票仓位达到约43.99%；傅鹏博和朱璘共同管理的睿远成长价值基金一季报显示，该基金通过港股通交易机制投资的港股公允价值为人民币37.83亿元，占期末基金资产净值比例为20.11%。

针对港股市场一季度反弹，前海开源沪港深汇鑫基金经理表示，自2023年11月美联储表态变化以来，全球主要市场表现都比较不错，尤其是亚太区的新兴市场，如韩日印度等，而中国市场则没有受到提振。叠加市场十分便宜的估值和对悲观假设在价格上的较充分反映，使得香港市场在没有国家层面的资金支持下，也走出了比A股稳健的表现。

谈及港股此次反弹的逻辑，博时基金境外投资部基金经理赵宪成认为，本轮反弹可将4月16日（一季度中国GDP披露日）当作一个分水岭，1月中旬到4月16日之前市场担心中国经济下行压力犹存，但是在市场恐慌下跌后，来自保险、银行理财的保守增量资金，追求低波动与现金收益，因此配置低估值、高股息，此阶段红筹股相对表现优于港股新经济。

港股本轮上涨有望延续

经历连续反弹后，港股市场后市表现将如何演绎？

如今的香港处在一个转型和过渡期，嘉实基金基金经理王鑫晨认为当前普遍的低估值和低流动性，会随着本轮宏观基本面预期扭转而消除。互联网及其他港股科技行业经过2023年的超预期估值下杀，估值下修已到历史底部，在宏观预期的反转之下有望迎来更大的估值弹性。目前，港股估值依旧处于历史低位。截至4月末，恒生指数市盈率为9.14，处于最近10年16.61%的分位点。放眼全球，中国资产被极度低估，投资潜力更大。

博时基金表示，港股方面，近期美元对港股压制减轻，港股风险偏好有所改善，交易情绪大幅上行，南下流入改善，后续整体走势将依赖于国内经济企稳。

展望后市，中信建投证券认为，港股本轮上涨有望延续，将由恒生科技指数逐渐切换至高股息板块。未来南向资金定价权有望大幅提升，代替外资主导港股风格。今年港股的配置主线仍为红利板块，科网板块可关注景气改善的龙头股。

具体来看，王鑫晨看好在海外上市的中国资产的价值回归，偏向盈利模式较好、拥有优秀管理层，同时具备长期空间和竞争优势，且估值和预期合理的优质品种。注重在科技成长类资产上的配置，主要集中在互联网、软件以及其他恒生科技中的重点科技标的。预期大部分公司会在2024年持续复苏，叠加AI带来的小部分增量，预期估值有望进一步被消化。

恒生前海基金基金经理邢程看好三条主线的投资机会，一是具备确定性股东回报的高股息资产，其中包括电信、能源、公用事业和金融等行业。二是受益于出海逻辑的结构性产业机会，其中包括工业、新能源车和消费行业中的制造和品牌等板块。三是科技创新趋势下的产业升级机遇，其中包括TMT和生物医药等板块。

编辑/jayden

Source: Broker China
Author: Qi Wu

Recently, Hong Kong stocks continued to strengthen. After a short period of consolidation, they continued to rise for another 3 days. As of May 13,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$It stood steady at 19,000 points, with a cumulative increase of more than 12% during the year, a record high in 9 months.

Hong Kong stocks continued to rebound, and southbound capital did not slow down the pace of net purchases. On May 13, net purchases of Hong Kong stocks were HK$8.807 billion in a single day. The cumulative net purchase of Hong Kong stocks during the year reached HK$233,662 billion (equivalent to over RMB 210 billion), accounting for 70% of the cumulative net purchase amount last year, and there is a strong desire to raise capital.

Against the backdrop of no significant improvement in fundamentals, the rebound in the Hong Kong stock market is widely regarded as being driven by capital. Southbound capital continued to flow net into the Hong Kong stock market, which played a positive role in underpinning Hong Kong stocks. After April 11, foreign capital poured into Hong Kong stocks sharply, and the two joined forces to drive a strong rise in Hong Kong stocks.

Looking ahead to the future market, some institutions said that the current round of increase in Hong Kong stocks is expected to continue, and it will be$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$Gradually switch to high-dividend sectors. In the future, the pricing power for southbound capital is expected to increase dramatically, replacing the style where foreign capital dominates Hong Kong stocks.

Funding is active in going south

On May 13, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.8%, the closing price exceeded 19,000 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.42%.$Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (800100.HK)$An increase of 0.64%. Hong Kong stocks have continued to rise strongly recently, with a cumulative increase of more than 12% during the year, a record high in 9 months, drawing widespread attention in the market.

CITIC Construction Investment Securities said that the core reason for the recent strong rise in Hong Kong stocks is an improvement in capital. In this round of growth, southbound capital played a leading role. Since February, inflows have continued, gradually spreading from the dividend sector to other sectors. Foreign capital poured into Hong Kong stocks sharply after April 11, and resonance with domestic capital contributed to a strong rise in Hong Kong stocks in this round.

BOC International agreed. Hong Kong stocks have continued to rebound since April, and the biggest buyers in the market are foreign investors. From the end of March to the beginning of May, there was a slight net increase in foreign investment.

Looking at the southbound capital flow, the net purchase of Hong Kong stocks in a single day on May 13 was HK$8.807 billion, the highest in a single day since April 17. There are obvious signs of capital rush.

Looking at the whole year, Southbound Capital's cumulative net purchases of Hong Kong stocks reached HK$233.662 billion, accounting for 70% of the cumulative net purchase amount last year. There is a strong desire to raise capital.

The resource sector and the Internet technology sector of the Hong Kong stock market rose one after another, driving a recovery in market trading sentiment. Recently, the Hong Kong stock real estate sector rebounded, compounded by rumors of dividend tax cuts, and the Hong Kong stock market ushered in a second wave of rebound.

Judging from the sector's performance, the information, finance, and real estate sectors had the highest gains in the past 20 days. Since this year, the raw materials, energy, and information sectors have registered the highest gains. Healthcare is still the worst performing sector, with a decline of more than 16% during the year.

Hong Kong-backed funds raise their eyebrows and exhale

The Hong Kong stock market continues to rebound, and ETFs with Hong Kong stock indices that have been losing money for many years have finally experienced a strong rebound.

Looking at the performance of the past 60 days, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF, Hong Kong Stock Internet ETF, and Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF all increased by more than 40%, which is enough to see the strength of the recent rebound in Hong Kong stocks.

Judging from the annual performance of cross-border ETFs, the Hong Kong stock index ETF had the highest increase. The cumulative increase of Hong Kong Stock Connect dividend ETF, Hong Kong stock state-owned enterprise ETF, Hong Kong stock dividend ETF, Hong Kong share state-owned enterprise ETF, and H share ETF traded on the market during the year.

The performance of Hong Kong-backed ETFs weighed on ETFs in European and American markets, making them the best performers in the QDII market this year.

Hong Kong stock ETF trading volume continued to rise. For example, on May 13, Hang Seng Internet ETF had a single-day turnover of nearly $4 billion, while Hang Seng Technology Index ETF and Hang Seng Technology ETF reached $2,914 billion and $2,614 billion respectively.

Some Hong Kong-themed active equity funds have also performed well. Funds with Hong Kong volume, such as Qianhai Open Source Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Huixin, Harvest Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen Returns, Huatai Berry Hong Kong Stock Convergence, and Fuguo Shanghai-Hong Kong Premium Assets all increased their performance by more than 20% during the year.

In fact, the Hong Kong stock market has not performed well in recent years. Most investors participate in Hong Kong stock investments through fixed investment ETFs. With the recent rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, the overall losses of investors holding Hong Kong stock ETFs have gradually shrunk. Meanwhile, active equity fund managers are also actively embracing Hong Kong stocks, continuously increasing their positions in Hong Kong stocks at the bottom.

According to the quarterly report disclosed by E-Fangda Blue Chip Select Fund, Zhang Kun continued to increase his positions in the Hong Kong stock market, reaching about 43.99% of the stock positions held through Hong Kong Stock Connect; the first quarterly report of Ruiyuan Growth Value Fund, which was jointly managed by Fu Pengbo and Zhu Yi, showed that the fair value of Hong Kong stocks invested by the fund through the Hong Kong Stock Connect trading mechanism was RMB 3,783 billion, accounting for 20.11% of the net asset value of the fund at the end of the period.

In response to the rebound in the Hong Kong stock market in the first quarter, Qianhai Kaiyuan Shanghai-Hong Kong Shenzhen Huixin Fund said that since the Federal Reserve's statement of change in November 2023, major global markets have performed quite well, especially emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region, such as South Korea, Japan, and India, while the Chinese market has not been boosted. Combined with the extremely cheap valuation of the market and the full reflection of pessimistic assumptions on the price, the Hong Kong market also showed steady performance compared to A-shares without financial support at the national level.

Referring to the logic of the current rebound in Hong Kong stocks, Zhao Xiancheng, fund manager of the Overseas Investment Department of Bosch Fund, believes that the current round of rebound can be used as a watershed moment. From mid-January to April 16, the market is worried that downward pressure on the Chinese economy still exists, but after the market panic falls, conservative incremental capital from insurance and bank financial management pursues low volatility and cash returns, so allocating undervalued and high dividends. Red chip stocks are relatively superior to the new Hong Kong stock economy at this stage.

The current round of gains in Hong Kong stocks is expected to continue

After experiencing a continuous rebound, how will the future performance of the Hong Kong stock market be interpreted?

Today, Hong Kong is in a period of transformation and transition. Wang Xinchen, fund manager of Harvest Fund, believes that the current general undervaluation and low liquidity will be eliminated as macro-fundamental expectations are reversed in this round. The Internet and other Hong Kong stock technology industries declined after exceeding expectations in 2023. The valuation decline has reached the bottom of history, and is expected to usher in greater valuation flexibility under the reversal of macroeconomic expectations. Currently, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is still at a historically low level. As of the end of April, the price-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index was 9.14, which is the fraction of 16.61% in the last 10 years. From a global perspective, China's assets are extremely undervalued, and investment potential is even greater.

Bosch Fund said that in terms of Hong Kong stocks, the US dollar's suppression of Hong Kong stocks has recently been reduced, risk appetite for Hong Kong stocks has improved, trading sentiment has risen sharply, and southward inflows have improved, and the overall trend will depend on domestic economic stabilization.

Looking ahead to the future market, CITIC Construction Investment Securities believes that the current round of gains in Hong Kong stocks is expected to continue, and the Hang Seng Technology Index will gradually switch to a high-dividend sector. In the future, the pricing power for southbound capital is expected to increase dramatically, replacing the style where foreign capital dominates Hong Kong stocks. The main allocation of Hong Kong stocks this year is still the dividend sector, and the Science Network sector can focus on leading stocks that are improving.

Specifically, Wang Xinchen is optimistic about the return in value of Chinese assets listed overseas. He favors high-quality varieties with good profit models, excellent management, long-term space and competitive advantages, and reasonable valuations and expectations. Focus on the allocation of technological growth assets, mainly focusing on the Internet, software, and other key technology targets in Hang Seng Technology. Most companies are expected to continue to recover in 2024, compounded by small increases brought about by AI, and expected valuations are expected to be further digested.

Xing Cheng, fund manager of Hang Seng Qianhai Fund, is optimistic about three main investment opportunities. The first is high-dividend assets with deterministic shareholder returns, including telecommunications, energy, utilities, and finance. The second is structural industrial opportunities that benefit from the logic of going overseas, including manufacturing and brand sectors in the industrial, NEV, and consumer industries. The third is an opportunity for industrial upgrading under the trend of scientific and technological innovation, including sectors such as TMT and biomedicine.

Editor/jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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