当期权被高估时，如果股票价格仍在预期范围内，则可以根据IV crush的短期波动进行套利。常见的短期波动策略包括铁鹰策略、卖出跨式策略和卖出宽跨式策略。How to use the performance period for options trading
Implicit changes in options are the magnitude of price changes expected by the market on a stock's performance date. Market traders can infer the value of an option by referring to implied changes. Furthermore, by reviewing the stock's past stock price performance on the performance date, it is also possible to determine its specific trading pattern or rise or fall situation.
Volatility options strategies
When options are overvalued, arbitrage can be carried out based on short-term fluctuations in IV Crush if the stock price is still within the expected range. Common short-term volatility strategies include the Iron Eagle strategy, the sell cross strategy, and the sell wide span strategy.
This week, the US stock market's earnings season is coming to an end. The market focuses on the financial reports of leading companies in the industry such as Walmart and Cisco. Meanwhile, China Securities will usher in a peak period of a round of performance disclosure, and companies such as Ali, JD, and Ideal Auto will be listed one after another. China's asset performance has been impressive recently. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has risen more than 6% this month, and the upcoming earnings season is also viewed by the market as one of the key factors affecting future market conditions.
Results release date: May 14 pre-market
Performance forecast: FY2024 Q4 revenue was RMB 219.832 billion, up 5.58% year on year; earnings per share was 5.41 yuan, down 39.88% year on year
Alibaba's current implied change is ± 6.8%, which is slightly higher than the historical average. The stock has a high probability of falling in the past 12 performance days, reaching 67%. Among them, the most volatile gains and losses were +14.8% and -11.1%, respectively. The previous four performance days closed down three times, closing at -5.4%, +4.6%, -9.1%, and -5.9%, respectively.
Inquiring about the volatility bias of options, it was found that market sentiment is bullish on Ali. Inquiring about last Friday's options transactions, I found that calls due this Friday with an exercise price of $80/85 have been arranged ahead of schedule, with an outstanding volume of 34,000 and 23,000, respectively.
Results release date: May 16 pre-market
Performance forecast: 2024 Q1 revenue of RMB 257.81 billion, up 6.11% year on year; earnings per share of 3.49 yuan, down 11.19% year on year
JD's current implied change is ± 4.4%, which is slightly higher than the historical average. There is a high probability that the stock will rise in the past 12 performance days, and the winning rate is very high after four results. The highest increase occurred on the previous performance day, reaching +16.2%, and +16.2%, while the remaining days closed at +7.2%, -3%, and +7% respectively.
Inquiring about the volatility bias of options, it was found that market sentiment towards JD is strong. Inquiring about last Friday's options transactions, I found that the call orders due this Friday with an exercise price of $35/31 were very active. They all sold more than 12,000, and the number of unclosed positions was 18,000 and 15,000, respectively.
CITIC Construction Investment expects the domestic macroeconomy and consumption to recover steadily this quarter, compounded by last year's low New Year's Festival base and JD's return to the Spring Festival Gala, and the company's GMV and revenue growth rate will continue to pick up. On the profit side, considering the 10 billion subsidy, base issues after the free shipping threshold was lowered, and the impact of JD's sponsorship of the Spring Festival Gala, profit margins for this quarter may be under pressure. It is estimated that JD's retail profit margin in the first quarter was about 3.7%, down year on year, but this year, due to the low price strategy, the user acquisition and retention effects brought about by the Spring Festival Gala event may be more positive.
Results release date: May 20 pre-market
Performance forecast: 2024 Q1 revenue of RMB 28.868 billion, up 53.66% year on year; earnings per share of 2.78 yuan, up 212.45% year on year
Ideal Auto's current implied change is ± 11.5%, which is slightly higher than the historical average. The stock has a high probability of rising in the past 12 performance days, reaching 67%. There were two major gains after the first four results. The highest increase occurred on the previous performance day, reaching +18.8%.
Looking at the volatility bias of options, it was found that market sentiment is bullish on ideal cars. Looking up last Friday's large options order, I found that some large players sold a PUT order at the ideal share price of 26.55 US dollars to bet on a rise in the stock price. The order expired on July 19, had an exercise price of 27 US dollars, and involved 560,000 US dollars.
How to easily enjoy the performance period? Futu Options tools help you!
>>Make good use of volatility analysis to determine the level of option valuation!
>>Options calculator to calculate the theoretical price of future options
Disclaimers
This content does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments. The risk of losing money when trading options can be extremely high. In some cases, you may lose more than the amount of your initial deposit. Even if you set backup instructions, such as “stop corrosion” or “limit price” instructions, you may not be able to avoid losses. Market conditions may make such instructions unenforceable. You may be asked to deposit an additional security deposit within a short period of time. If you fail to provide the required amount within the specified time, your open positions may be closed. However, you are still responsible for any shortfall in your account as a result. Therefore, you should study and understand options before trading, and carefully consider whether this type of trading is suitable for you based on your financial situation and investment goals. If you trade options, you should be familiar with the procedures for exercising options and when they expire, as well as your rights and responsibilities when you exercise options and when they expire.
edit/new