集采压力趋缓&工商医协同，制剂板块预期稳定随着公司过亿制剂产品大多纳入集采，核心产品硝苯地平控释片集采已在报表端体现，公司制剂板块受到集采影响趋缓。作为国药旗下统一的化药工业平台，公司积极参与国药集团“自家亲”发展计划，持续加强与国药集团内部商业巨头国药控股的合作，落实“工商医协同”，预期公司制剂板块营收规模保持稳定。Key points of investment:
National reforms have improved quality and efficiency, and high API prices have driven high performance growth. In 2023/2024Q1, the operating income of the company increased by -6.86%/-8.60%, respectively, and net profit to mother increased by 10.21%/84.83%, respectively. The company's sales expenses rate gradually declined from 29.59% in 2019 to 17.84% in 2023, and 2024Q1 fell further to 14.52%. This was mainly due to the driving results of the company's cost reduction and efficiency improvement project system and the company's pharmaceutical product collection and extrusion sales expenses. It is expected that cost reduction and efficiency will continue to advance, and the company's various cost rates will continue to decline.
The gross margin of the APIs sector increased sharply to 23.84% in 2023 from 12.94% in 2022. Currently, the prices of antibiotic APIs and intermediates are high. The company is actively adjusting the product structure, and the sales scale of some high-margin products has increased year-on-year. With the company's lean management and cost reduction and efficiency on the production side, the gross margin of the company's APIs sector is expected to continue to rise.
Collection pressure is slowing down & industry and medicine are collaborating. The formulation sector is expected to stabilize. As most of the company's over 100 million formulation products are included in the collection, the collection of the core product nifedipine control-release tablets is already reflected on the reporting side, and the company's formulation sector is being affected by collection slowly. As a unified chemical industry platform under Sinopharm, the company actively participated in the Sinopharm Group's “Family Family” development plan, continued to strengthen cooperation with Sinopharm Group's internal commercial giant Sinopharm Holdings, and implemented “industrial and commercial medical collaboration”. It is expected that the revenue scale of the company's pharmaceutical sector will remain stable.
Adequate financial capital on the book, supported by epitaxial investment and mergers and acquisitions
As of the 2023 annual report, the company's total assets were 19.352 billion yuan and total liabilities were 5,014 billion yuan; the company's balance ratio gradually declined from 48.72% in 2018 to 25.91% in 2023.
In 2023, the company's book capital was 5.973 billion yuan, and sufficient cash on hand provided support for the company's outward investment mergers and acquisitions. It is expected that the company will actively expand the industrial chain, improve the business layout, and increase the epitaxial industrial layout.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
We expect the company's revenue growth in 2024-2026 to be -5%/0%, the net profit growth rate to mother will be 37%/17%/13%, and EPS will be 0.71 yuan, 0.83 yuan, and 0.93 yuan respectively.
Considering that the company is a unified chemical industry platform under the Sinopharm Group, it has the advantage of commercial and medical collaboration within the Sinopharm Group, and the national reform is expected to reduce costs and increase efficiency to continue to improve the company's performance; for the first time, coverage was given a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Prices of antibiotic raw materials and intermediates have declined, and the cost reduction and efficiency of national reform have fallen short of expectations
