Today, the main contract of the shipping index (European line) soared sharply, rising more than 14%, setting a new record high in history. This sharp rise began on March 15 this year. The cumulative increase has reached 170%, and the limelight has even surpassed that of gold.
It is worth noting that since May, the Baltic Sea dry bulk freight index has also been rising. On May 8, it surged by nearly 6%, the highest level since March 21.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an important index for studying the future performance and investment value of shipping stocks. It is also one of the leading indicators for international trade and the international economy. It focuses on global demand for commodities such as minerals, food, coal, and cement.
Why is the European Freight Index booming? What do you think of the future market?
According to market opinion, this surge is mainly driven by three factors. Among them,
The main reason is that the geographical situation is heating up. Global shipping company Maersk said that disruptions in container shipping in the Red Sea region are increasing, and capacity between the Far East and Europe is expected to drop by 15% to 20% in the second quarter of this year.
Second, spot prices have been rising, and major liner companies are successively carrying out the second round of rate increases in May;
Third, the demand side also continues to pick up, and demand for international trade is improving. Whether it is the retail sales growth rate in the US or the manufacturing PMI trend in major emerging countries, it is in an upward stage, supporting the main European futures contracts in the shipping index to rise.
Furthermore, the upcoming traditional peak season for shipping will further catalyze the rise in market expectations for shipping demand.
Guoxin Securities said that the impact of the current Red Sea conflict continues. Retail inventory replenishment in Europe and the US is driving up demand. Some European ports will begin to block ports this week. Once major routes begin to be delayed, it will siphon the capacity of other routes. If congestion cannot be resolved, freight rates are expected to once again exceed expectations.
Shen Wan Hongyuan believes that the continuation of the Red Sea detour has exceeded expectations, compounded by the recent recovery in exports, leading the South American route, and the sharp rise in European and American routes. European futures reflect the linkage of futures stocks in the global shipping sector. Although there are sufficient orders for large container ships and new ships. If the Red Sea detour is completed, there is a lot of downward pressure on freight rates, but this is already partly reflected in the valuation. Considering that shipping prices have recently exceeded expectations, judging from subsequent cargo volumes, the agency believes that the traditional peak season in July-September has not yet begun, and it is highly certain that prices will continue to rise in May-August based on current levels.
What are the investment opportunities in the Hong Kong and US stock markets?
Recently, the “one cabin is hard to find” phenomenon has once again appeared in the shipping market, and the sharp rise in shipping costs has become a hot topic. Futu News has also sorted out relevant concept stocks in the Hong Kong and US stock markets for the reference of bulls.
Today, Hong Kong shipping stocks are collectively higher.$OOIL (00316.HK)$,$COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138.HK)$,$COSCO SHIP HOLD (01919.HK)$,$COSCO SHIP DEV (02866.HK)$Both increased by more than 5%,$SITC (01308.HK)$,$SINOTRANS (00598.HK)$Up more than 3%. Since this year, these companies have performed particularly well. COSCO Offshore Control and Haifeng International increased by more than 50% during the year.
In fact, US stocks$Marine Shipping (BK2485.US)$The sector has started a “boom” mode since mid-late April, with a cumulative increase of over 16%.
Looking at constituent stocks, global shipping giants$ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM.US)$A 78% increase during the year, diversified shipping companies$Navios Maritime (NMM.US)$Up to 70%, British dry bulk carrier owners$Golden Ocean (GOGL.US)$Up nearly 57%, tanker barge operators$Kirby (KEX.US)$, shipping companies$BW LPG LIMITED (BWLP.US)$Both increased by more than 40%.
However, some analysts suggest risks that the current factors affecting the shipping market are complex, and participants need to pay attention to many factors. As some liner returns in late May, capacity supply will increase significantly, which may put pressure on freight rates at that time. Investors cannot simply judge freight rate trends based on the low season in the traditional shipping market.
Editor/Somer