Financial Services Association, May 13 (Editor: Li Xiang) In early trading today, the yield on treasury bonds of various maturities has generally risen, and the popularity of transactions has increased dramatically. As of 10 points in the intraday period, 10-year treasury bonds declined by 1.85 bp to 2.2925%, and the number of transactions had already broken 1,000. The 30-year treasury bonds fell by 2.25 bp to 2.55%, and the volume was close to 800. The bulls showed strong performance.

The 30-year treasury bond futures jumped high, and the highest price for the main contract TL2409 was 106.36 yuan. Near noon, the Ministry of Finance officially announced the 2024 general treasury bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds issuance schedule, and the 30-year treasury bond futures trend is weakening. By the midday close, the latest price of 30-year treasury bond futures was 106.01 yuan, up 0.72 yuan.

Data source: QB, compiled by the Financial Federation

Judging from market performance in the past week, as of May 11, the yield on 2-year treasury bonds declined by 1 BP to 1.89% from week to week, the yield on 10-year treasury bonds rose by 3.33BP to 2.34%, and the yield on 30-year treasury bonds rose 7.44BP to 2.61%. Treasury bond futures were strong. By the close of May 10, TS2406, TF2406, and T2406 were up 0.06%, 0.12%, and 0.17%, respectively, from week to week, while TL2406 fell 0.47% from week to week. Overall, 10-year treasury bond futures have risen from a phased low of 103.56, but overall 30-year treasury bond futures are dominated by shocks, and long-term interest rates are under pressure.

The Everbright Futures team said that judging from last week's market information, capital was relaxed in the first week after the holiday. Expectations of monetary policy easing did not increase supply pressure on government bonds, but concerns about the supply of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds still exist, and the yield curve has steeper. In the short term, in anticipation of stable funding, recovery of weak economy, and government debt volume, the shortfall facing long-term treasury bonds will be greater than the short-term, and the yield curve is expected to continue to steep.

Judging from the news, the biggest news of the weekend was the release of social finance data. Due to the non-bank break, 10-year treasury bonds fell by only 2 bps last Saturday. Today, non-banks carried the flag and maintained a bullish trend.

However, industry insiders believe that with regard to bearish social finance data, there is no need to be too pessimistic. In the recent first-quarter central bank securities report, the reasons have been clearly explained and the current economic performance does not match interest rates on long-term bonds. With the start of today's ultra-long-term special treasury bond mobilization meeting, the asset shortage pattern will improve, and interest rate pricing on long-term bonds will return. With liquidity easing maintaining expectations, it is expected that short-term high-liquidity products will still be relatively more cost-effective.

TSE Futures also believes that there are many economic indicators released last week. All indicators reflect that the entity sector's endogenous financing and investment momentum is weak, and the pattern of fundamentals that benefit the long-term multi-bond market has not changed. However, the central bank believes that the pace of fiscal debt issuance will accelerate, and supply and demand in the bond market are expected to further balance, which means that there is still a risk that interest rates on ultra-long bonds will rise.

In addition, some institutional investors believe that inflation is expected to rise moderately from a low level in the future. The yield on long-term treasury bonds, as a nominal interest rate, will itself increase as the level of inflation recovers, which will also support long-term bond yields.