The Zhitong Finance App learned that Alibaba-SW (09988) will announce financial results on May 13. Since April, Alibaba's stock price has rebounded more than 10%, benefiting from the continuous rise in the Hong Kong stock market. Institutions generally expect that in the latest quarter, Ali will achieve revenue of RMB 219.832 billion, an increase of 5.58% year on year, adjusted EBITA decline year on year, and earnings per share of 5.41 yuan, a decrease of 39.88% year on year.
Regarding this financial report, investors mainly focused on the effects of Ali in promoting e-commerce GMV growth through a low price strategy, changes in the management gap of retail and commercial customers in China, ways to increase shareholder returns, and company share repurchases and dividend payment guidelines. The low price strategy is beginning to bear fruit, and Taotian Group's GMV growth rate has been restored.
Many agencies generally expect that due to the gradual recovery of e-commerce and the company's continued promotion of price power and user experience optimization strategies, Ali's online GMV is expected to achieve healthy growth this season, and the main business value will remain stable. In addition, Ali's international business and cloud business continue to gain strength and have great potential for growth.
Looking at the macro environment, consumer and retail sales recovered well in the first quarter, recovering to 123% in the same period in '19. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, total retail sales of social consumer goods in the first 3 months were 12032.7 billion yuan, up 4.7% year on year; online retail sales nationwide were 338.2 billion yuan, up 12.4% year on year. Furthermore, on the logistics side, China's express delivery business increased 25.2% year-on-year in the first quarter.
According to reports released earlier by Huachuang Securities analysts Wang Weina and Yao Jing, judging from the GMV growth rates of major e-commerce platforms in the first quarter, the three biggest players, Ali Taotian, JD, and Pinduoduo, were 15%, 29%, and 21%, respectively. In contrast, the GMV growth rate of the two major e-commerce platforms Douyin and Kuaishou during the same period was 45% and 38%, far higher than traditional e-commerce.
CICC also believes that thanks to the company's strategic direction of establishing “scale and market share as the primary goal” and the good performance of online consumption since the beginning of the year, Ali's GMV growth rate this season has gradually caught up with the year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales. It will increase 6% year on year, and customer management revenue (CMR) will increase 3.5% year on year.
On the other hand, due to AliExpress's continued high growth, preparations for the 10 billion subsidized brand to go overseas have accelerated. Alibaba's retail revenue is expected to increase by about 45% year-on-year to 20.5 billion yuan this quarter, with an adjusted EBITA loss of about 4.1 billion yuan; Alibaba Cloud's revenue is expected to increase 4% year-on-year to 25.7 billion yuan, and the adjusted EBITA is about 1.6 billion yuan.
Guohai Securities also estimates that Alibaba's revenue for the first quarter of this year may reach 219.8 billion yuan, up 6% year on year, but adjusted EBITA fell 2% year on year to 24.8 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that in the financial year ending March 31, 2024, Alibaba repurchased a total of 1,249 billion shares of common stock (equivalent to 156 million American depository shares) at a total price of 12.5 billion US dollars, making it the most aggressive Chinese internet company to repurchase in the past fiscal year.
Currently, Ali's share repurchase plan still has a repurchase limit of US$31.9 billion, which is valid until March 2027. The company continues to strengthen shareholder returns, which is expected to further improve sentiment.
CMB International pointed out that although increased investment in the business puts pressure on profit margin expansion, the bank remains optimistic about Alibaba's long-term growth potential. Ali is committed to improving shareholder returns by reducing losses in non-core businesses, strengthening stock repurchases, and increasing dividend payments, which supports short-term valuations. Measures to promote the Group's business integration and strategic collaboration may provide long-term value.