A week ago, Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure plc (NASDAQ:AY) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$243m leading estimates by 2.4%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$0.05 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
NasdaqGS:AY Earnings and Revenue Growth May 12th 2024
Following the latest results, Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.16b in 2024. This would be an okay 4.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 46% to US$0.23 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.41 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.
The consensus price target held steady at US$23.23, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$33.00 and the most bearish at US$20.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.9% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 5.6% per year. Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$23.23, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
一週前,Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure plc(納斯達克股票代碼:AY)公佈了一組強勁的第一季度數據,有可能導致該股重新評級。 每股收入和虧損均好於預期,收入爲2.43億美元,比預期高出2.4%。法定虧損低於分析師的預期,爲每股0.05美元。分析師通常會在每份收益報告中更新他們的預測,我們可以從他們的估計中判斷他們對公司的看法是否發生了變化,或者是否有任何新的問題需要注意。我們認爲,讀者會發現分析師對明年最新(法定)業績後的預測很有趣。
NASDAQGS: AY 收益和收入增長 2024 年 5 月 12 日
根據最新業績,Atlantica可持續基礎設施的七位分析師現在預測2024年的收入爲11.6億美元。與過去12個月相比,收入可以增加4.8%。預計同期法定每股收益將下降46%,至0.23美元。在本業績發佈之前,分析師一直預測2024年的收入爲11.6億美元,每股收益(EPS)爲0.41美元。因此,鑑於新的每股收益預測大幅下調,最新業績公佈後,市場情緒肯定有所下降。
共識目標股價穩定在23.23美元,分析師似乎投票認爲,在可預見的將來,他們較低的預期收益預計不會導致股價下跌。但是,還有另一種思考價格目標的方法,那就是研究分析師提出的價格目標範圍,因爲範圍廣泛的估計可能表明,對業務可能的結果有不同的看法。對Atlantica可持續基礎設施的看法各不相同,最看漲的分析師將其估值爲33.00美元,最看跌的爲每股20.00美元。如你所見,分析師對該股的未來並不完全一致,但估計範圍仍然相當狹窄,這可能表明結果並非完全不可預測。
當然,看待這些預測的另一種方法是將它們與行業本身聯繫起來。從最新估計中可以明顯看出,Atlantica可持續基礎設施的增長率預計將大幅加快,預計到2024年底的年化收入增長率爲6.5%,明顯快於過去五年中每年1.9%的歷史增長。預計該行業其他類似公司(有分析師報道)的收入也將以每年5.6%的速度增長。預計Atlantica可持續基礎設施的增長速度將與其行業大致相同,因此目前尚不清楚我們能否從其相對於競爭對手的增長中得出任何結論。
底線
要了解的最重要的一點是,分析師下調了每股收益的預期,這表明公佈這些業績後,市場情緒明顯下降。他們還重申了收入預期,預計該公司的增長速度將與整個行業大致相同。共識目標股價穩定在23.23美元,最新估計不足以對其目標價格產生影響。
根據這種思路,我們認爲該業務的長期前景比明年的收益重要得多。我們對Atlantica可持續基礎設施的預測將持續到2026年,你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
我們不想在遊行隊伍中下太多雨,但我們還發現了 Atlantica 可持續基礎設施的 3 個警告標誌(1 個有點不愉快!)這是你需要注意的。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。