As you might know, Marinus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNS) last week released its latest first-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. The numbers were weak, with revenues of US$7.7m coming in 16% short of analyst estimates. Statutory losses were US$0.68 per share, 3.0% larger than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Marinus Pharmaceuticals' eleven analysts is for revenues of US$39.4m in 2024. This reflects a substantial 39% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 25% to US$1.98. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$41.1m and losses of US$2.23 per share in 2024. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts making a cut to losses per share in particular.

The analysts have cut their price target 24% to US$6.67per share, suggesting that the declining revenue was a more crucial indicator than the forecast reduction in losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Marinus Pharmaceuticals, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$13.00 and the most bearish at US$2.00 per share. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 55% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 57% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 9.3% per year. So although Marinus Pharmaceuticals is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also downgraded Marinus Pharmaceuticals' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Marinus Pharmaceuticals' future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Marinus Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Marinus Pharmaceuticals analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 6 warning signs we've spotted with Marinus Pharmaceuticals (including 2 which shouldn't be ignored) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.