Shareholders might have noticed that Xperi Inc. (NYSE:XPER) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.2% to US$9.99 in the past week. Revenues of US$119m came in a modest 2.7% below forecasts. Statutory losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share loss of US$0.29 coming in a substantial 60% smaller than what the analysts had expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Xperi

Following last week's earnings report, Xperi's five analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$513.2m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 12% from last year to US$2.29. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$515.1m and losses of US$1.26 per share in 2024. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a considerable increase to loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$19.50, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Xperi at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$15.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.04% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 0.6% over the last year. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 13% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Xperi is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Xperi's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Xperi analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Xperi that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.