Last week, you might have seen that SNDL Inc. (NASDAQ:SNDL) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.1% to US$2.30 in the past week. Revenues of CA$198m came in a modest 5.5% below forecasts. Statutory losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share loss of CA$0.01 coming in a substantial 83% smaller than what the analyst had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analyst is forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimate suggests is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for SNDL

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from SNDL's one analyst is for revenues of CA$941.5m in 2024. This would reflect a modest 2.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 87% to CA$0.07. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CA$978.9m and CA$0.12 per share in losses. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analyst making a considerable decrease in losses per share in particular.

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$3.61, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that SNDL's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 66% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that SNDL is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analyst made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on SNDL. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with SNDL (including 1 which is concerning) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.