Source: Finance Association

Probably after OpenAI released the “Wensheng Video” model Sora during the Spring Festival this year, there has been no flower activity in the AI field that would excite “melon-eating people” for several months.

However, it is easy to see from the schedules of major tech giants that the AI circuit, which has been dormant for a long time, is about to usher in a wave of “mid-year carnivals” — OpenAI will host a live broadcast event next Monday to demonstrate a series of “like magic” ChatGPT and GPT-4 updates. Microsoft, on the other hand, will hold a Build developer conference in a week. After a short break, Apple WWDC will serve the Chinese investors' table along with the steaming big meat rice dumplings.

Caught in the middle is Google, an established AI giant, the founder and follower of this AI wave. After experiencing all kinds of pain over the past year, Google management such as Sundar Pichai and James Hassabis needed to prove to the world that as the only large-scale technology company in the AI field that can still compete with Microsoft, Google is still holding its ground.

AI, AI, or AI

As the core event of the annual developer conference, the I/O 2024 keynote will be held at 10 a.m. Pacific time on May 14 (1 a.m. Beijing time on the 15th).

At the Shoreline Amphitheatre near Google's Mountain View headquarters, investors will hear about updates to artificial intelligence, search engines, Android 15 systems, and how these new features are being presented on newly launched mobile devices.

What needs to be properly named for Google is that Pichay actually shouted the slogan from “mobile first” to “AI first” in his I/O speeches in 2016 and 2017, and emphasized “rethinking all products and applying machine learning.” Even so, after ChatGPT came out of nowhere a year and a half ago, Google was widely questioned and turned into a backward catcher.

After a year of catching up and catching up, Google has successively launched the Gemini 1.0 and 1.5 series models. Among them, the most powerful 1.5 Pro has shown the potential to overwhelm GPT in terms of context window length and multi-modal capabilities. But for the capital market to recognize Google's “AI-first” status, the company still needs to release a range of transformative and widely usable products.

At last year's I/O conference, Google focused on the chatbot Bard (later renamed Gemini) and the integration of a range of artificial intelligence into various products and services, such as maps and photo editing tools developed in collaboration with Adobe.

Obviously, at next week's conference, Google will urgently prove that its Gemini has surpassed OpenAI/Microsoft's GPT/Copilot, so we may see a new version of Gemini next week, as well as a deeper integration of the platform into various products and applications.

Google previously said it would replace Google Mobile Assistant with a Gemini-based chatbot. It is currently unclear whether Google is preparing to introduce such changes at this I/O. At least for now, the performance of Gemini's apps and web apps on mobile devices is still lackluster. To replace the long-standing Google Mobile Assistant, Gemini needs to make quite a few updates.

On the search engine side, Google announced the AI-based Generative Search Experience (SGE) a year ago. This year's focus will be on whether Google thinks this service is mature enough to withdraw from the lab preview program. If the era where search engines can directly provide answers (rather than providing a bunch of links for users to click on their own) officially arrives, this will have a profound impact on users and content publishers alike.

Meanwhile, Google's Maps app has been testing AI searches to find destinations through conversation. As far as map application scenarios are concerned, the demand for this kind of functionality is not that common.

Finally, Google's developer conference also has the possibility of leaking Apple's WWDC news ahead of time. According to the latest news, Apple may be close to reaching a partnership with OpenAI to use external AI in the iOS system, and is also in negotiations with Google to introduce Gemini.

The core question of this is how these external AIs will be presented in the iOS system. Meanwhile, a series of Android AI features that Google will launch next week may hint at what Apple is preparing.

Currently, in the Android system, the main use of AIGC is automatic response, SMS magic writing, summary summary, and retouching of the Gemini Nano-driven input method keyboard. With the upgrading of chips and software, designing a mobile phone operating system based on artificial intelligence is also on the agenda. For example, what should the home screen, lock screen, and notification bar look like in the AI era? This is the answer that Google and Apple need to hand over within the next month.

In addition to AI, Android 15, which is currently in the developer preview phase, also shows improvements such as satellite connectivity, camera control functions, and a privacy sandbox.

Hardware stand on the sidelines

Probably not the same as previous years; Google probably wasn't prepared to set aside much time for hardware devices this year.

After I/O launched the Pixel Fold, the folding screen phone last year, but the upgrade of this device may face major upgrades until the fall, along with the latest Pixel 9 phone. At the same time, in order to prevent news about new phone releases from being “buried” in a bunch of AI news, Google has officially announced the latest mid-range Pixel 8a phone this week and will officially go on sale on the opening day of the I/O conference.

Since Google usually doesn't care much about keeping new devices private, there is no news at this point, which is enough to show that the company wants to spend more time on AI-related announcements. It's easy to imagine that Google would spend quite a bit of time talking about how to use the latest Android features on Pixel phones.

Finally, news related to virtual reality headsets may also appear at this year's I/O conference.

At last year's I/O conference, Google confirmed that it is working with Samsung to develop an Android-based XR headset operating system. Meanwhile, after Meta reportedly refused to use “Android XR” last year, it has begun to push major manufacturers to install the Horizon OS system again.

Finally, after the official keynote, Google will also hold a developer keynote on the same day, mainly revealing the latest development tools. Many Wall Street analysts are also closely watching the conference. The main focus is “whether the monetization path has become more clear” and whether there will be other AI catalysts.

edit/ruby