Emerging market outlook: Pay attention to financial results announcements from leading companies, will momentum for growth market reviews increase soon

Fisco Japan · May 11 12:43

■12営業日連続で1000億円を割り込む

先週から今週にかけて（4月30日～5月10日）の新興市場は反発。4月26日終値に対する騰落率は、日経平均が＋0.78％だったのに対して、グロース市場指数は＋0.80％、グロース市場250指数は＋0.87％とほぼ同じような反発となった。日本政府の円買い・ドル売り介入とみられる動きによる為替乱高下のほか、プライム銘柄の決算発表が先行したことなどから、グロース市場の関心はより低下し積極的な売買は手控えられた。

売買代金はグロース市場が誕生した2022年4月以降、最長となる12営業日連続で1000億円を割り込むなど商いは閑散。グロース市場指数、グロース市場250指数ともに、朝方上昇しても、買い一巡後は上げ幅縮小もしくはマイナス圏に突入するなど弱い地合いが続いた。週末にかけては、決算を発表したサンウェルズ＜9229＞やBASE＜4477＞が大幅高となったが、JTOWER＜4485＞は急落するなど時価総額が大きい主力株は引き続きまちまち。

個別銘柄では、GreenEnergy & Company＜1436＞は株主優待拡充が材料視されて買い優勢となった。GMO TECH＜6026＞、Arent＜5254＞は決算が材料視されて買われたほか、売れるネット広告社＜9235＞は短期資金が流入し急騰。トラース・オン・プロダクト＜6696＞はAI電力削減ソリューションの技術が日本で特許登録されたことで上昇した。一方、決算が嫌気されてサイバー・バズ＜7069＞、データホライゾン＜3628＞、デコルテHD＜7372＞が売られた。また、直近IPO銘柄のカウリス＜153A＞、コージンバイオ<177Ａ>、Will Smart＜175A＞、ダイブ＜151A＞、レジル＜176A＞も売り優勢となった。

■主力処の決算がピークを迎える

来週の新興市場は、時価総額が大きい主力処の決算がピークを迎えることから、売買代金は1000億円台を回復しそうだ。10日の引け後に決算を発表した弁護士ドットコム＜6027＞、GMOフィナンシャルゲート＜4051＞、ispace＜9348＞の動向に注目が集まろう。

好決算だった弁護士ドットコム、GMOフィナンシャルゲートは素直に買われる展開となりそうだ。一方、ispaceは前期が営業損失55.0億円と前年比で赤字幅縮小となったのに対し、今期営業損失は131.1億円と赤字幅が大幅拡大の見通しとなっており、市場がどう捉えるか注目したい。

来週は13日に、カバー＜5253＞、アドベンチャー＜6030＞、14日にトライト＜9164＞、ライフネット生命保険＜7157＞、15日にウェルスナビ＜7342＞、フリー＜4478＞、スカイマーク＜9204＞、セーフィー＜4375＞、ジーエヌアイグループ＜2160＞の決算発表が予定されている。グロース市場が盛り上がるような核となる銘柄が出てくるか期待したいところだ。

グロース市場指数、グロース市場250指数ともに4月に年初来安値をつけた後は下げ渋っている。「閑散に売り無し」といった地合いではあるが、接近している25日移動平均線上回ってくると反発基調は強まると考える。主力処の決算発表後に核となる銘柄が出て売買代金が1000億円をコンスタントにクリアしてくれば、グロース市場見直しの機運も強まろう。

■Cut below 100 billion yen for 12 consecutive business days

Emerging markets rebounded from last week to this week (4/30 to 5/10). The gain/fall rate against the 4/26 closing price was almost similar to the Nikkei Average of +0.78%, while the Growth Market Index was +0.80% and the Growth Market 250 Index was +0.87%. In addition to exchange rate fluctuations due to movements seen as yen buying/dollar sales intervention by the Japanese government, interest in the growth market declined further due to the fact that financial results announcements for Prime stocks took precedence, etc., and aggressive trading was refrained.

Since 2022/4, when the growth market was born, sales have been quiet, with trading prices falling below 100 billion yen for 12 consecutive business days, which is the longest. Even though both the Growth Market Index and Growth Market 250 Index rose in the morning, they continued to be weak, with increases shrinking or entering a negative zone after the first round of buying. Over the weekend, Sunwells ＜9229＞ and BASE ＜4477＞, which announced financial results, rose drastically, but the main stocks with large market capitalization continued to be mixed, such as a sharp drop in JTOWER (4485).

As for individual stocks, GREENenergy & Company ＜1436＞ became a buying advantage because the expansion of shareholder benefits was viewed as a material. GMO TECH ＜6026＞ and Arent ＜5254＞ were bought based on financial results, and short-term funds flowed in to sellable internet advertising companies ＜9235＞ skyrocketed. Truss On Product (6696) has risen since the technology for AI power reduction solutions was registered as a patent in Japan. Meanwhile, financial results were disgusted, and Cyber Buzz ＜7069＞, Data Horizon ＜3628＞, and Decollete HD ＜7372＞ were sold. <177Ａ>Also, recent IPO brands Kaulis ＜153A＞, Cojin Bio, Will Smart ＜175A＞, Dive ＜151A＞, and Regil ＜176A＞ also had a sales advantage.

■The financial results of the main office are at their peak

In emerging markets next week, trading prices are likely to recover to the 100 billion yen level since the financial results of the main forces with large market capitalization will peak. Attention will be drawn to trends in lawyer.com ＜6027＞, GMO Financial Gate ＜4051＞, and ISPACE ＜9348＞, which announced financial results after closing on the 10th.

Lawyer.com and GMO Financial Gate, which had good financial results, are likely to be honestly bought. Meanwhile, while ISPACE's deficit narrowed compared to the previous year with an operating loss of 5.5 billion yen in the previous fiscal year, the current fiscal year's operating loss is expected to expand drastically, with an operating loss of 13.11 billion yen, and the deficit range is expected to expand drastically, so I would like to pay attention to how the market sees it.

Next week, financial results for Cover ＜5253＞, Adventure ＜6030＞, Tright ＜9164＞, Lifenet Life Insurance ＜7157＞ on the 14th, Wealth Navi ＜7342＞, Free ＜4478＞, Skymark ＜9204＞, Safe ＜4375＞, and GNI Group ＜2160＞ are scheduled to be announced on the 13th. I would like to look forward to seeing if core stocks will come out so that the growth market will be exciting.

Both the Growth Market Index and Growth Market 250 Index have been reluctant to decline after hitting year-to-date lows in April. Although the situation is “quiet and no sales,” I think the rebound trend will intensify when it rises above the close 25-day moving average line. If the core stocks come out after the financial results of the main company are announced and the trading price constantly clears 100 billion yen, momentum for growth market reviews will also strengthen.

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新興市場見通し：主力処の決算発表に注目、そろそろグロース市場見直しの機運が強まるか

Emerging market outlook: Pay attention to financial results announcements from leading companies, will momentum for growth market reviews increase soon

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