It's been a pretty great week for Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to US$5.47 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. Revenues came in at US$190m, in line with forecasts and the company reported a statutory loss of US$0.01 per share, roughly in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
NYSE:HL Earnings and Revenue Growth May 10th 2024
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Hecla Mining from four analysts is for revenues of US$830.1m in 2024. If met, it would imply a meaningful 17% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Hecla Mining forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.013 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$830.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.015 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.
The consensus price target held steady at US$7.08, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hecla Mining at US$10.25 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$5.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hecla Mining's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Hecla Mining's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 23% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.7% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Hecla Mining is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hecla Mining. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hecla Mining. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hecla Mining going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Hecla Mining that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.