Matters:
The company released its 2023 annual report and 2024 quarterly report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.936 billion yuan, +34.30% year on year; net profit to mother of 169 million yuan, +54.56% year on year; comprehensive gross profit margin of 22.58%, -0.13pct year on year; net profit margin of 8.73%, +1.14pct year on year. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 348 million yuan, -3.97% YoY, -46.73%; net profit to mother of 0.11 million yuan, -78.33% YoY, -54.56% month-on-month; comprehensive gross profit margin of 22.11%, -5.27pct, +7.35pct month-on-month; net profit margin 3.15%, YoY -10.82pct, and -0.54 pct month-on-month.
Commentary:
The revenue of the support business has increased rapidly, and global development has blossomed. In 2023, the company's scaffolding business achieved revenue of 1,674 billion yuan, an increase of 36% over the previous year; of these, distributed scaffolding achieved revenue of 881 million yuan, an increase of 4.79% over the previous year, accounting for 53% of the revenue of the scaffolding business. In 2023, the gross profit margin of the company's support business was 19.33%, +1.41pct year-on-year, and overall profitability was stable. (1) Domestic: In 2023, module prices fell rapidly, domestic investment demand for centralized ground power plants increased dramatically, the cost of distributed power plants continued to decrease, and demand exploded.
Shipments of the company's fixed and tracking brackets in the domestic market have increased significantly. In 2023, the company's support business achieved domestic revenue of 695 million yuan, an increase of 115.28% over the previous year. (2) Australia: In 2023, the company's scaffolding business achieved revenue of 386 million yuan in Australia, ranking first in the Australian distributed scaffold market. (3) Europe: The “Repower EU Plan” further promotes the transformation of the energy structure, and demand for PV installations is strong. In 2023, the company's European regional revenue was 287 million yuan, up 3.28% year over year. Furthermore, it is actively expanding partners in West Asia, North and South America, and Africa, and has now achieved a breakthrough in dealer business in the South African market.
Start digital intelligent manufacturing and accelerate the development of new products. In 2023, the company spent 43.213,400 yuan on R&D, an increase of 60.79% over the previous year. The company carried out technical upgrades and transformation of the two major production bases in Xiamen and Tianjin, increased the degree of automation, optimized production management systems, and launched the SAP digital factory project. In terms of product layout, the company launched new household BIPV brackets, commercial color steel tile bracket systems, and household aluminized magnesium-zinc-carbon steel brackets to enrich the company's product line, which is expected to further enhance the competitiveness and market coverage of the company's products.
The collaborative development of the energy storage business is expected to contribute to growth. Relying on distributed photovoltaic stent product channel advantages, the company collaboratively develops portable energy storage and household storage businesses. Sales of the company's household energy storage products began in the second half of 2023; portable energy storage products were sold on a small scale in 2022, and sales began in the American and Asian markets in 2023.
Investment advice: The company's support business is developing steadily, and the energy storage business is expected to become the second growth pole. Considering the competitive situation in the industry, we adjusted the profit forecast. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 220/2.88/376 million yuan, respectively (value of 285/386 million yuan before 24/25), and the current market value corresponding to PE is 21/16/12 times, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, the 2024 25x PE was given, corresponding to a target price of 20.06 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: terminal demand falls short of expectations, capacity expansion progress falls short of expectations, increased market competition, etc.