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“根本抢不到箱子!” 红海绕航效应显现 集运市场再掀缺舱潮?

“Can't grab the box at all!” Is the Red Sea orbiting effect showing another wave of cabin shortages in the shipping market?

cls.cn ·  May 10 18:54

① After the “May 1st” holiday, shipping prices continued to rise. Maersk announced the beginning of a June price increase. This week, the Ningbo Airlines Exchange NCFI Composite Index rose 13.3% month-on-month; ② COSCO Maritime Holdings said the company's exports to Europe and the US were all at full load; ③ the industry claimed that liner companies increased prices in this round, and liner companies actively raised prices. Furthermore, the Red Sea detour effect showed a decrease in fleet turnover.

Financial Services Association, May 10 (Reporter Hu Haoqiong) “Freight rates have started to rise again, and we can't grab the box at all!” The head of a freight forwarder company told the Financial Federation reporter that the “lack of a box” this time was essentially a lack of space.

A Financial Services Association reporter learned that against the backdrop of price increases from existing two-wheel liner companies in May, liner companies' empty flights resumed after “May 1st,” and freight rates are still rising. Maersk also recently announced that it will start increasing prices in June.

Some analysts told the Financial Federation reporter that currently there is little idle capacity in the market. In the context of Red Sea orbiting, the current capacity is somewhat insufficient, and the detour effect is evident.

Judging from the current performance of spot freight prices, the European route is an example of the Shanghai-Rotterdam route. GeekYum data shows that on May 10, the liner company's price was in the 4040/FEU-5554/FEU range. As of April 1, the price of this route was 2,932 US dollars/FEU 3885 dollars/FEU. There was also a significant increase in the US line compared to the previous one. Prices from Shanghai to Los Angeles and Long Beach reached a maximum price of 6,457 US dollars/FEU on May 10.

Today, according to data released by the Ningbo Shipping Exchange, the NCFI Composite Index reported 1812.8 points this week, up 13.3% from last week. Among them, the European route freight index was 1992.9 points, up 22.9% from last week; the Diasi-Western route freight index was 2435.9 points, up 23.5% from last week. In terms of North American routes, the US-West route freight index was 2628.8 points, up 5.8% from last week. The East African route fluctuated greatly. The freight rate index was reported at 1552.4 points, up 47.5% from last week.

Qian Hanglu, an industry analyst at the Ningbo Shipping Exchange, said that due to the influence of liner companies generally increasing freight rates, freight rates in many route markets have risen. On this basis, transportation demand for North American routes also continued to pick up.

The aforementioned analyst further stated that the liner company's initiative to raise prices is only one of the reasons for the increase in freight rates. At the same time, the detours of ships on European routes have increased the time required to sail and the turnover rate of the fleet has decreased, and liner companies need to draw ships or stop sailing in order to maintain service efficiency.

Meanwhile, COSCO Maritime Control (601919.SH) publicly stated that the company's current production and operation are all normal, and that exports to Europe and the US are all fully loaded.

According to the latest market report released by Kuehne Nagel (Kuehne Nagel), the world's largest shipping forwarder company, the overall space situation on the China-Europe route in May was tight, and freight rates are expected to continue to rise in the next two weeks; on the China-US route, the loading rate of the US line continued to be at full capacity in the first half of the month, especially in the US. The situation where low-cost cabins are limited and FAK space is tight will continue until late. There is a potential risk that Canadian railway workers will go on strike on May 22.

May be affected by this, the consolidated shipping index (European line) futures continued to rise today, and the price of multi-contract futures reached a record high. Among them, EC2410 rose 16%, EC2408 rose 14.5%; EC2412 rose 11.52%; and EC2406 rose 7.02%.

In response, CITIC Futures stated in its report that supply and demand on the European route is tight in the context of long-term detours, and there is room for continued upward growth in EC2406 and EC2408 contract valuations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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