Description of the event
The company released its 2024 quarterly report: during the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 45.555 billion yuan, -0.13% year on year; net profit to mother of 1,785 billion yuan, +88.62% year on year; net profit after deduction of 1,736 billion yuan, +89.80% year on year; weighted average ROE was 3.59%, up 1.52 percentage points year on year, and achieved investment income of 453 million yuan, year on year increase of 549 million yuan.
Incident reviews
First-quarter results achieved rapid growth, in line with overall expectations; a steady, moderate, and slight decline on the revenue side meant slight pressure on the feed-in tariff, high profit side growth, cost-side improvements, investment income that exceeded expectations, and Prudential Shendong was not included in the consolidated statements after the bankruptcy and handover of Prudential Shendong.
Thermal power is stable, and there is a high increase in PV feed-in power. In the first quarter of '24, the company's consolidated report achieved 106.244 billion kilowatt-hours of power generation, +4.98% year-on-year; feed-in electricity reached 10.69 billion kilowatt-hours, +5.02% year-on-year. Among them, feed-in electricity for thermal power, hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaics achieved 860.23, 77.28, 51.38, and 1,801 billion kilowatt-hours, respectively, +4.24%, -3.22%, +11.66%, and +136.26% compared with the same period last year.
The overall price of feed-in electricity fell slightly. In the first quarter of '24, the company's average feed-in price was 455.58 yuan/kilowatt-hour, -1.62% year-on-year.
The total installed capacity has increased steadily, and the installed performance of new energy sources is impressive. By the end of the first quarter of '24, the company's total installed capacity reached 105.9948 million kilowatts, +8.81% year on year; of these, thermal power 72.574 million kilowatts, +1.66% year on year; hydropower 149.506 million kilowatts, unchanged year on year; wind power 9.293 million kilowatts, +24.59% year on year; and 9176,900 kilowatts of photovoltaics, +154.00% year on year. In the first quarter of 2024, the installed capacity of the Company's New Energy Holdings increased by 635,500 kilowatts, an increase of 31.55% over the previous year.
The cost side has improved, and profitability has increased significantly. The company's basic earnings per share for the first quarter of '24 were 0.10 yuan, +88.68% year-on-year, achieving a significant increase. The price of Changxie coal declined steadily in the first quarter. During the same period, the average price of Q5500 coal at the end of Qingang Power Company was 901.94 yuan/ton, down 20.12% from the previous year; by the end of '23, the company's thermal power business accounted for 84.58%, and the improvement in upstream prices led to a significant increase in the company's profit.
High investment returns and Prudential Shendong were no longer included in the consolidated statements after the bankruptcy and handover contributed to profit growth.
The company's investment income increased dramatically in the first quarter of '24, with investment income of 453 million yuan in joint ventures and joint ventures, +568.05% over the same period, further increasing the company's profit side. The current bankruptcy of Baode Shendong Electric Power Co., Ltd. was handed over to the manager and is no longer included in the scope of the company's consolidated statements, affecting net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increasing by 199 million yuan.
Hydropower and new energy have great potential in the future. The company's new energy installation capacity is high, and the scale of construction projects related to hydropower and new energy power generation is large. By the end of '23, in terms of hydropower, the company approved 2,807 million kilowatts of hydropower projects, and about 3.52 million kilowatts of hydropower in the Dadu River Basin; in terms of new energy, the 23 obtained a new energy construction target of 16.74 million kilowatts, a nuclear preparation plan of 15.288 million kilowatts, Shanghai Temple's 3 million kilowatt photovoltaic, and Tianjin Haijing's 1 million kilowatt photovoltaic system. The company has a stable position as a leader in power generation and has the ability to continuously start production. It is expected that with the implementation of projects under construction, the company's performance is expected to continue to grow.
Investment advice
Considering that the company is one of the largest installed power listed companies in China, with strong coal-power integration and strong profitability and resource integration capabilities; and the company has blossomed more, it is expected that the company will eventually achieve an increase in thermal power profitability, restoration of hydropower generation, and rapid growth in new energy power supply; the company's EPS is expected to be 0.43\ 0.50\ 0.54 yuan respectively in 2024-2026, corresponding to the company's closing price of 5.15 yuan on May 9, and PE for 2024-2026 was 12.1\ 10.3\ 9.5, respectively. A” rating.
Risk warning
Feed-in electricity prices fluctuated beyond expectations; new energy installed capacity fell short of expectations; risk of upstream fuel price fluctuations; risk of macroeconomic growth falling short of expectations.