公司坚持“深耕鸭脖主业，构建美食生态”的战略,2023 年中国大陆地区门店总数达1.60 万家（不含港澳台及海外市场），全年净增长874 家。随着门店增长及销售增加，2023 年公司卤制食品销售/加盟商管理分别实现营收60.50/0.83 亿元，同比增速分别为7.09%/11.38%。拆分鲜货类产品，公司禽类/畜类/蔬菜/其他产品2023 年分别实现营收44.78/0.27/6.80/5.83 亿元，同比增速分别为6.50%/26.78%/5.57%/2.80%。分地区来看，华中仍为公司优势市场，西北地区增速表现亮眼，2023 年西南/西北/华中/华南/华东/ 华北/ 新加坡澳大利亚及港澳市场分别实现营收8.32/1.41/22.19/16.05/12.93/8.87/1.30 亿元， 同比分别-3.76%/106.52%/10.81%/12.06%/8.72%/19.04%/-13.22%。Incidents:
Exquisite Foods announced its 2023 and 2024 first quarter reports. In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 7.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.64% over the adjusted revenue in 2022, and achieved net profit of 344 million yuan, and a net profit growth rate of 46.63% compared to 2022. 2024Q1 achieved revenue of 1,695 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.04%; net profit to mother was 165 million yuan, an increase of 20.02% over the previous year.
Focus on main business, resilient growth
The company adheres to the strategy of “deepening the duck neck business and building a food ecosystem”. In 2023, the total number of stores in mainland China reached 16,000 (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and overseas markets), with a net increase of 874 for the whole year. With store growth and sales growth, in 2023, the company's marinated food sales/franchisee management achieved revenue of 6.050/083 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.09%/11.38%, respectively. Separating fresh goods products, the company achieved revenue of 44.78/0.27/6.80/583 million yuan in 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.50%/26.78%/5.57%/2.80%, respectively. By region, central China is still the company's dominant market, and the growth rate in the northwest region is impressive. In 2023, the Southwest/Northwest/Central China/South/East China/North China/Singapore markets achieved revenue of 8.32/1.41/22.19/16.05/12.93/8.87/130 million yuan, respectively, of -3.76%/106.52%/10.81%/12.06%/8.72%/19.02%/-13.22%.
Lean production reduces costs, optimizes production capacity and increases efficiency
The company's gross margin in 2023 was 24.77%, down 0.80pct year over year. Benefiting from the continuous advancement of cost reduction and efficiency measures, the company's sales expenses rate/ management expense ratio/ R&D expenses ratio were -2.31/-1.39/0.00pct to 7.44%/6.38%/0.58%, respectively. In 2023, the company's net interest rate reached 4.37%, an increase of 1.44pct over the previous year. Looking forward to the future, as the company's lean production, cost reduction and efficiency measures are further deepened, taking the initiative to reduce costs and optimize production capacity, it is expected that profit space will gradually be freed up.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Considering the weak recovery on the demand side, the same store is still under pressure. We adjusted the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to 80.36/89.05/9.332 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.66%/10.82%/4.79%, respectively, and net profit to mother of 7.87/9.348 billion yuan, respectively. The year-on-year growth rates were 128.68%/21.01%/9.99%, EPS was 1.27/1.54/1.69 yuan/share, respectively, and the 3-year CAGR was 44.97%. Given that the company's stores are expected to be gradually repaired and cost improvements can be expected, based on comparable company valuations, we gave the company 20 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 25.39 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: channel expansion falls short of expectations; cost fluctuations; increased industry competition; food safety risks
