The Zhitong Finance App learned that Brent crude oil, the benchmark for international crude oil prices, rose slightly on Thursday as US crude oil inventories fell beyond expectations and increased imports from China last month boosted demand expectations from the world's two largest crude oil consumers. However, oil prices have clearly fallen from recent highs, and futures prices for Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil recorded their biggest weekly decline in 3 months last week. Brent crude also experienced monthly declines in April. Ole Hansen (Ole Hansen), head of commodity strategy from Saxo Bank (Saxo), said in a report on Wednesday that due to the intensification of hedge fund sell-off contracts, crude oil futures prices are currently close to a two-month low, but may eventually rebound to around $90.

Hanson added in the report that although the armed conflict in the Middle East region continues, the risk of disruptions in global crude oil supply is getting closer to zero. In particular, the international community is making efforts (despite many difficulties) to find a path to a cease-fire conflict. On Thursday's trading day, the trading price of WTI crude oil rose only slightly by 0.7% to $79.55 per barrel, while Brent crude rose only slightly by 0.6% to $84.11 per barrel.

“As hedge funds exit bullish crude oil positions driven by strong momentum, and commodity traders who misjudged the trend sought new technical selling points for a further decline after falling below the 200-day moving average last week, the current trend of a sharp drop in oil prices is intensifying.” The Saxo Bank report shows.

At the same time, the Europe-based financial institution also pointed out that if Brent crude oil fails to maintain the key price of $90 — Saxo Bank believes this will be the preferred profitable price area for most OPEC+ oil producers, then the prospect that long-term crude oil production cuts will further erode OPEC+'s share in the crude oil market is becoming a reality.

The positive news is that official US government data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories, indicating a tightening of supply. According to EIA (US Energy Information Administration) data, US crude oil inventories fell by about 1.361 million barrels last week due to increased refinery activity, reversing a huge increase of 7.265 million barrels in the previous period. As the US non-farm payrolls market shows clear signs of weakness, traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the second half of this year continue to grow, which has also boosted the prospects for energy demand.

Analysts at Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that they no longer expect OPEC+ to partially reverse recent voluntary production cuts in June. Goldman Sachs analysts also believe that in most cases, the price of Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $75 and $90 for a long time. After the summer driving season, oil prices may trend upward, and predict that the average price in 2025 may only reach $82 per barrel. Saxo Bank (Saxo Bank) predicts that the price of Brent crude oil may return to close to $90 per barrel in the future.

Major international bank UBS (UBS) recently raised its crude oil price forecast by 5 US dollars/barrel. The bank expects the price range of Brent crude oil, the international crude oil benchmark, to fluctuate between 85 and 95 US dollars/barrel in the next few months, and the North American crude oil pricing benchmark, WTI crude oil price range is expected to be between 80 and 90 US dollars/barrel. In the report, UBS also raised its global demand growth forecast for this year, while also lowering the crude oil production forecast for OPEC+ countries for the second quarter of 2024.

Analysts at Wall Street firm Morgan Stanley recently raised the Brent crude oil price forecast for the second quarter of this year to $4.50 per barrel to 92 US dollars/barrel, and raised the Brent crude oil price forecast for the third quarter by 4 US dollars/barrel to 94 US dollars/barrel. Bank of America's global research team predicts that the average prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil will be 86 US dollars/barrel and 81 US dollars/barrel respectively this year. The peak of the two will be around 95 US dollars/barrel in summer. As of press release, the Brent crude oil futures price is hovering around $83.60, up 10% since this year.