Last week, you might have seen that Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:IONS) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.8% to US$40.16 in the past week. It wasn't the greatest result, with ongoing losses and revenues of US$119m falling short of analyst predictions. The losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share statutory loss of US$0.98 being moderately smaller than the analysts forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the consensus from Ionis Pharmaceuticals' 20 analysts is for revenues of US$599.4m in 2024, which would reflect a stressful 23% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to balloon 49% to US$3.94 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$619.7m and losses of US$3.94 per share in 2024.
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$58.17, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite a downwards adjustment to forecast revenue next year. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ionis Pharmaceuticals at US$85.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$33.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 5.6% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 29% decline in revenue until the end of 2024. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 18% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Ionis Pharmaceuticals is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ionis Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Ionis Pharmaceuticals has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
