Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 16% in the last month. But only the myopic could ignore the astounding decline over three years. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 79% in the last three years. Arguably, the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still.
On a more encouraging note the company has added US$93m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the three years that the share price fell, Herbalife's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 29% each year. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 41% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 7.51.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
A Different Perspective
Investors in Herbalife had a tough year, with a total loss of 30%, against a market gain of about 27%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 12% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Herbalife (2 are concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.