Last week, you might have seen that Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.7% to US$29.82 in the past week. Match Group reported US$860m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.44 beat expectations, being 8.6% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the latest results, Match Group's 25 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$3.56b in 2024. This would be a credible 3.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 14% to US$2.13 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.61b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.18 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$42.16, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Match Group at US$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$30.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Match Group'shistorical trends, as the 4.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 5.6% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 10% annually. So although Match Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Match Group. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$42.16, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Match Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Match Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Match Group has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.