ON24, Inc. (NYSE:ONTF) Just Released Its First-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Simply Wall St ·  May 9 18:52

Last week, you might have seen that ON24, Inc. (NYSE:ONTF) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.3% to US$6.46 in the past week. Revenue hit US$38m in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$0.26 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

NYSE:ONTF Earnings and Revenue Growth May 9th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the six analysts covering ON24, is for revenues of US$145.0m in 2024. This implies an uneasy 8.4% reduction in ON24's revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 19% from last year to US$0.87. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$145.0m and US$0.95 per share in losses. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$8.33, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic ON24 analyst has a price target of US$9.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$8.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. Over the past three years, revenues have declined around 6.6% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 11% decline in revenue until the end of 2024. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 13% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately ON24 is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ON24's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$8.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for ON24 going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for ON24 that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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