It's been a good week for uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.5% to US$4.89. Revenues of US$8.5m crushed expectations, although expenses understandably increased with statutory losses reaching US$1.36 per share, somewhat higher than what the analysts forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on uniQure after the latest results.
Following the latest results, uniQure's 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$63.8m in 2024. This would be a sizeable 236% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 24% to US$4.65. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$59.7m and US$4.32 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on uniQure after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.
The consensus price target stayed unchanged at US$20.74, seeming to suggest that higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on uniQure, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$29.90 and the most bearish at US$5.98 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting uniQure's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4x annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 16% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 18% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect uniQure to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at uniQure. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$20.74, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple uniQure analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for uniQure that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.